Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust's (ASX:CQR) investors will be pleased with their 5.2% return over the last three years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 21, 2022
ASX:CQR
Source: Shutterstock

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust (ASX:CQR) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 12% in three years, versus a market return of about 45%.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

See our latest analysis for Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 12% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's strange to see such muted share price performance despite sustained growth. Perhaps a clue lies in other metrics. So we'll have to take a look at other metrics to try to understand the price action.

We note that the dividend has declined - a likely contributor to the share price drop. In contrast it does not seem particularly likely that the revenue levels are a concern for investors.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:CQR Earnings and Revenue Growth January 21st 2022

Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust's TSR for the last 3 years was 5.2%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 19% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 5%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.

But note: Charter Hall Retail Real Estate Investment Trust may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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