APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX code: AQR) is a listed Australian real estate investment trust which owns high quality Australian service stations and convenience retail assets.
The last earnings update was 120 days ago.
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ASX:AQR using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity using Funds From Operations Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
APN Convenience Retail REIT
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
APN Convenience Retail REIT is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), we use funds from operations (FFO) or adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) instead of levered free cash flow for REITs. This excludes depreciation and borrowing. Ideally analysts estimates of AFFO are used, where these aren't available we use FFO.
ASX:AQR DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
APN Convenience Retail REIT
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
APN Convenience Retail REIT
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
APN Convenience Retail REIT's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
APN Convenience Retail REIT's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
APN Convenience Retail REIT's
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
APN Convenience Retail REIT's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
APN Convenience Retail REIT's earnings are expected to grow by 17.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
APN Convenience Retail REIT's revenue is expected to grow by 1.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
APN Convenience Retail REIT's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
APN Convenience Retail REIT
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
APN Convenience Retail REIT's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
APN Convenience Retail REIT's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
APN Convenience Retail REIT's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
APN Convenience Retail REIT's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
The APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR) Share Price Has Gained 11% And Shareholders Are Hoping For More
To wit, the APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR) share price is 11% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 2.5% (not including dividends) in the same period. … We'll need to follow APN Convenience Retail REIT for a while to get a better sense of its share price trend, since it hasn't been listed for particularly long. … We note that for APN Convenience Retail REIT the TSR over the last year was 19%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above.
How Did APN Convenience Retail REIT's (ASX:AQR) 12% ROE Fare Against The Industry?
The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for APN Convenience Retail REIT: 12% = AU$13m ÷ AU$233m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2018.) Most know that net profit is the total earnings after all expenses, but the concept of shareholders' equity is a little more complicated. … Does APN Convenience Retail REIT Have A Good Return On Equity? … APN Convenience Retail REIT's Debt And Its 12% ROE While APN Convenience Retail REIT does have some debt, with debt to equity of just 0.50, we wouldn't say debt is excessive.
Could APN Convenience Retail REIT's (ASX:AQR) Investor Composition Influence The Stock Price?
A look at the shareholders of APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR) can tell us which group is most powerful. … Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. … With a market capitalization of AU$236m, APN Convenience Retail REIT is a small cap stock, so it might not be well known by many institutional investors.
Here's Why We Think APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR) Is Well Worth Watching
In the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, my choice may seem old fashioned; I still prefer profitable companies like APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR). … See our latest analysis for APN Convenience Retail REIT. … APN Convenience Retail REIT maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 62% to AU$29m.
How Many Insiders Bought APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR) Shares?
So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR). … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … In any event it's generally a positive if insiders are buying shares at around the current price
Does APN Convenience Retail REIT's (ASX:AQR) Share Price Gain of 10% Match Its Business Performance?
For example, the APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX:AQR) share price is up 10% in the last year, clearly besting than the market return of around 5.3% (not including dividends). … APN Convenience Retail REIT hasn't been listed for long, so it's still not clear if it is a long term winner. … During the last year APN Convenience Retail REIT saw its earnings per share (EPS) increase strongly.
APN Convenience Retail REIT (ASX code: AQR) is a listed Australian real estate investment trust which owns high quality Australian service stations and convenience retail assets. The Fund’s portfolio of 70 properties valued at approximately $355 million, is predominantly located on Australia’s eastern seaboard and is leased to leading Australian and international convenience retail tenants. The portfolio provides a long lease expiry profile and contracted annual rent increases delivering the Fund a sustainable and strong level of income security. Convenience Retail has a target gearing range of 25 – 40% as part of its conservative approach to capital management. APN Convenience Retail REIT is governed by an Independent Board of Directors and is managed by APN Property Group, a specialist real estate investment manager established in 1996 with approximately $2.8 billion in assets under management.
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