ASX:APZ

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Formed in 2001, Aspen Group is an ASX listed property group strategically focused on providing “value for money” accommodation.


Snowflake Analysis

Fair value with moderate growth potential.

Share Price & News

How has Aspen Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: APZ's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.1%

APZ

8.6%

AU REITs

7.1%

AU Market


1 Year Return

-6.8%

APZ

-31.7%

AU REITs

-19.4%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: APZ exceeded the Australian REITs industry which returned -31.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: APZ exceeded the Australian Market which returned -19.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

APZIndustryMarket
7 Day1.1%8.6%7.1%
30 Day-21.6%-34.1%-21.3%
90 Day-24.6%-33.2%-24.8%
1 Year-2.1%-6.8%-28.5%-31.7%-15.8%-19.4%
3 Year6.6%-11.4%-8.7%-21.7%-2.4%-15.8%
5 Year-3.4%-29.6%17.5%-8.6%8.4%-16.0%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Aspen Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Aspen Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: APZ (A$0.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$3.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: APZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: APZ is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the REITs industry average.

PE vs Market: APZ is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Australian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate APZ's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: APZ is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.7x) compared to the AU REITs industry average (0.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Aspen Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

69.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: APZ is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: APZ is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: APZ's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: APZ's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-23.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: APZ's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-23.2% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: APZ's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.7%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Aspen Group performed over the past 5 years?

48.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: APZ is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: APZ is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: APZ is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 48.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare APZ's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: APZ is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the REITs industry (1.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: APZ has a negative Return on Equity (-5.64%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Aspen Group's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: APZ has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: APZ's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.2x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable APZ has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: APZ is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, even with free cash flow being positive and shrinking by -27.2% per year.


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: APZ's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if APZ has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: APZ reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if APZ has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: APZ has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if APZ has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Aspen Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

6.18%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: APZ's dividend (6.18%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (3.17%).

High Dividend: APZ's dividend (6.18%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (8.18%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: APZ's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: APZ's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (57.9%), APZ's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: APZ's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (80.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

John Carter (55yo)

1.08s

Tenure

AU$199,347

Compensation

Mr. John Carter, MBA (Syd), BAppSc (Property Resource Mgmt) (UniSA), AAPI, GAICD, serves as Executive Director & Joint Chief Executive Officer at Aspen Group since March 14, 2019. Mr. Carter is a Managing  ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
John Carter
Executive Director & Joint CEO1.08yrsAU$199.35k0.022% A$18.5k
David Dixon
Joint CEO1.08yrsno datano data
Winston Chan
Group Financial Controllerno datano datano data
Mark Licciardo
Joint Company Secretary3.58yrsno datano data
Belinda Cleminson
Joint Company Secretary3.58yrsno datano data
Michael Dunstan
Financial Accountant of Aspen Living Villages Business13.5yrsno datano data

3.6yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: APZ's management team is considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
John Carter
Executive Director & Joint CEO1.08yrsAU$199.35k0.022% A$18.5k
David Dixon
Joint CEO1.08yrsno datano data
Guy Farrands
Independent Non-Executive Director7.42yrsAU$93.62k0.16% A$133.9k
Clive Appleton
Independent Non-Executive Chairman3.83yrsAU$168.52k0.21% A$176.8k
Ben Norman
Alternate Director1.25yrsno datano data

3.8yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: APZ's board of directors are considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: APZ insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Aspen Group's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Aspen Group
  • Ticker: APZ
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 2001
  • Industry: Diversified REITs
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: AU$85.726m
  • Shares outstanding: 96.32m
  • Website: https://www.aspengroup.com.au

Location

  • Aspen Group
  • 21 Oxford Street
  • Bondi Junction
  • New South Wales
  • 2022
  • Australia

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
APZASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesStapled SecuritiesAUAUDJun 1993
AYV1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesStapled SecuritiesDEEURJun 1993
APZCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesStapled SecuritiesAUAUDJun 1993

Biography

Formed in 2001, Aspen Group is an ASX listed property group strategically focused on providing “value for money” accommodation. The accommodation sector is considered to have positive long term structural characteristics, with an enduring customer need and effective capital utilisation. Aspen has been a leading owner and manager of holiday and accommodation parks since 2004. Aspen currently owns 9 holiday and accommodation parks across Australia. An active acquisition programme is underway to expand the portfolio within the “value for money” accommodation sector. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/01 13:41
End of Day Share Price2020/04/01 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.