ASX:AOG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Aveo Group invests in, develops, and manages retirement villages in Australia.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 131.88% per year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for AOG from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential and overvalued.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Aveo Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: AOG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

AOG

-0.3%

AU Real Estate

1.5%

AU Market


1 Year Return

21.9%

AOG

29.5%

AU Real Estate

15.6%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: AOG underperformed the Australian Real Estate industry which returned 44.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AOG exceeded the Australian Market which returned 19.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

AOGIndustryMarket
7 Day0%-0.3%1.5%
30 Day0%-3.3%0.4%
90 Day1.4%-5.4%4.1%
1 Year24.9%21.9%33.9%29.5%20.6%15.6%
3 Year-23.2%-30.1%21.6%8.9%37.1%18.7%
5 Year17.5%2.4%32.8%9.2%50.9%17.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Aveo Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Aveo Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

0.61x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AOG (A$2.14) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$0.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AOG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AOG is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Real Estate industry average.

PE vs Market: AOG is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Australian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AOG's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AOG is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.6x) compared to the AU Real Estate industry average (1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Aveo Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

131.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AOG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.3%).

Earnings vs Market: AOG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AOG's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AOG's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (3.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AOG's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.3%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Aveo Group performed over the past 5 years?

13.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AOG is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: AOG is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AOG is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 13.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare AOG's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: AOG is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Real Estate industry (-2.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: AOG has a negative Return on Equity (-10.76%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Aveo Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AOG's short term assets (A$312.5M) do not cover its short term liabilities (A$383.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: AOG's short term assets (A$312.5M) do not cover its long term liabilities (A$4.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AOG's debt to equity ratio (38.4%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: AOG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 25.5% to 38.4% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: AOG has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: AOG's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.4x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: AOG has been profitable on average in the past, therefore cash runway is not a concern.

Forecast Cash Runway: AOG has been profitable on average in the past, therefore cash runway is not a concern.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Aveo Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.10%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.1%marketbottom25%2.3%markettop25%5.5%industryaverage2.6%forecastin3Years2.5%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: AOG's dividend (2.1%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.34%).

High Dividend: AOG's dividend (2.1%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (5.47%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AOG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AOG's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: AOG is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: AOG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (58% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Aveo Group has no CEO, or we have no data on them.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
David Hunt
Chief Financial Officer9.7yrsAU$1.35m0.15% A$1.9m
Cameron Levick
Head of Sales and Marketing0.9yrsno datano data
Gary Kordic
Head of Development1.4yrsno datano data
Angela Buckley
Head of Community of Southern Region1.4yrsno datano data
Justin Lorenz
Head of Community of Northern Region1.3yrsno datano data
Darren Sonter
Head of Care1.3yrsno datano data
Anna Wyke
Company Secretary1.5yrsno datano data

1.4yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: AOG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Aveo Group's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Aveo Group
  • Ticker: AOG
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 1987
  • Industry: Real Estate Development
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: AU$1.238b
  • Shares outstanding: 578.65m
  • Website: https://www.aveo.com.au

Location

  • Aveo Group
  • 99 Macquarie Street
  • Level 5
  • Sydney
  • New South Wales
  • 2000
  • Australia

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
AOGASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesStapled SecuritiesAUAUDDec 1993
AOGCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesStapled SecuritiesAUAUDDec 1993

Biography

Aveo Group invests in, develops, and manages retirement villages in Australia. The company operates in four segments: Retirement Established Business, Retirement Development, Retirement Care and Support, and Non-Retirement. It is also involved in the development and resale of land and residential and retail properties; investment and management of income producing retail, commercial, and industrial properties; and funds and asset management activities. The company operates approximately 94 retirement and aged care communities; and 13,000 residents. The company was formerly known as FKP Property Group and changed its name to Aveo Group in November 2013. Aveo Group was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Sydney, Australia. As of November 29, 2019, Aveo Group operates as a subsidiary of Brookfield Financial Properties L.P.. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/03 10:35
End of Day Share Price2019/11/13 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2019/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.