Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) Is Up 17.3% After Lifting Revenue Guidance and Announcing NIH Trial Collaboration Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Mesoblast Limited recently released updated revenue guidance, projecting gross revenue of over US$30.0 million from Ryoncil® sales for the quarter ending December 31, 2025, and announced a collaborative pivotal trial with the NIH-funded Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network for Ryoncil® in adults with severe acute graft versus host disease.
• This combination of higher sales forecasts and expanded clinical research signals an important step as Mesoblast seeks to broaden both its revenue sources and therapeutic reach.
• We'll explore how the new revenue outlook and adult aGvHD trial collaboration could reshape Mesoblast's investment narrative.

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What Is Mesoblast's Investment Narrative?

To be a Mesoblast shareholder today, you need to believe in the company’s potential to move from clinical-stage biotech uncertainty to commercial-stage growth, with Ryoncil® at the center. The new revenue guidance, showing a US$30 million quarter and a sharp 37% jump over the prior period, puts revenue momentum front and center as a short-term catalyst, while the pivotal trial in adults marks a bid to expand the Ryoncil® label and reach new patient populations. These updates may shift the near-term focus from reimbursement and uptake risks toward trial enrollment and execution risks. However, profitability pressure remains, given current losses and executive compensation, so positive clinical and commercial outcomes will be closely watched by investors. Recent positive price moves suggest the news is material for reshaping expectations.

In contrast, investors should not overlook key risk factors around ongoing unprofitability.

Mesoblast's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Across 21 individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community, targets for Mesoblast range widely from just US$0.18 to US$50 per share. While many expect significant upside, this wide variation highlights sharply different opinions about the impact of Ryoncil’s ongoing trials and the company’s future path to profitability. Explore more perspectives here to see how your view stacks up.

Explore 21 other fair value estimates on Mesoblast - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Mesoblast Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Mesoblast research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Mesoblast research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Mesoblast's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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