What Type Of Returns Would Medlab Clinical's(ASX:MDC) Shareholders Have Earned If They Purchased Their Shares Three Years Ago?

Simply Wall St
June 07, 2021
Source: Shutterstock

The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But long term Medlab Clinical Limited (ASX:MDC) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 59% drop in the share price over that period. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 35% in the last 90 days.

View our latest analysis for Medlab Clinical

We don't think Medlab Clinical's revenue of AU$2,946,039 is enough to establish significant demand. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Medlab Clinical has the funding to invent a new product before too long.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Some Medlab Clinical investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.

Medlab Clinical had cash in excess of all liabilities of just AU$1.3m when it last reported (December 2020). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. With that in mind, you can understand why the share price dropped 17% per year, over 3 years. You can see in the image below, how Medlab Clinical's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:MDC Debt to Equity History June 8th 2021

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. You can click here to see if there are insiders selling.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Medlab Clinical had a tough year, with a total loss of 4.9%, against a market gain of about 30%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 9% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Medlab Clinical better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for Medlab Clinical (2 make us uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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