Aroa Biosurgery Limited (ASX:ARX) Just Reported Interim Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Aroa Biosurgery Limited (ASX:ARX) last week reported its latest half-yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of NZ$45m being 3.6% less than what the analysts had been modelling. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aroa Biosurgery from three analysts is for revenues of NZ$97.8m in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 8.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Aroa Biosurgery forecast to report a statutory profit of NZ$0.0027 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$99.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.005 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Aroa Biosurgery

The consensus price target held steady at AU$0.85, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aroa Biosurgery at AU$0.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$0.79. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Aroa Biosurgery's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 17% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 26% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Aroa Biosurgery's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aroa Biosurgery going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Aroa Biosurgery Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.