Did You Participate In Any Of Northern Star Resources' (ASX:NST) Incredible 389% Return?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 31, 2020
ASX:NST

Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. For example, the Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX:NST) share price is up a whopping 347% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. We note the stock price is up 1.6% in the last seven days.

View our latest analysis for Northern Star Resources

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, Northern Star Resources managed to grow its earnings per share at 15% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 35% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:NST Earnings Per Share Growth December 31st 2020

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Northern Star Resources' TSR for the last 5 years was 389%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Northern Star Resources shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 37% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Northern Star Resources that you should be aware of.

Northern Star Resources is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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