Should You Rely On Mineral Resources's (ASX:MIN) Earnings Growth?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 11, 2021

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Mineral Resources made a profit of AU$1.00b on revenue of AU$2.12b. One positive is that it has grown both its profit and its revenue, over the last few years.

See our latest analysis for Mineral Resources

ASX:MIN Earnings and Revenue History January 12th 2021

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. So today we'll look at what Mineral Resources' cashflow and unusual items tell us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At Mineral Resources' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to June 2020, Mineral Resources had an accrual ratio of 0.41. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. In fact, it had free cash flow of AU$204m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of AU$1.00b. Given that Mineral Resources had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of AU$204m would seem to be a step in the right direction. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by AU$1.1b, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Mineral Resources had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to June 2020. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Mineral Resources' Profit Performance

Mineral Resources had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Mineral Resources' statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example, we've found that Mineral Resources has 5 warning signs (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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