BCI Minerals (ASX:BCI) - Share price, News & Analysis

BCI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

BCI Stock Overview

BCI Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral assets in Australia.

Rewards

Earnings grew by 262.5% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 110.6% per year for the next 3 years

Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year

BCI Minerals Competitors

Red Hill Iron

ASX:RHI

AU$222.8m

Tigers Realm Coal

ASX:TIG

AU$248.3m

Bathurst Resources

ASX:BRL

AU$173.2m

Grange Resources

ASX:GRR

AU$1.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BCI Minerals
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$0.25
52 Week High	AU$0.53
52 Week Low	AU$0.22
Beta	1.21
1 Month Change	11.11%
3 Month Change	-32.43%
1 Year Change	-50.98%
3 Year Change	35.14%
5 Year Change	47.06%
Change since IPO	-53.27%

Recent News & Updates

May 11

Is BCI Minerals (ASX:BCI) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

Shareholder Returns

	BCI	AU Metals and Mining	AU Market
7D	2.0%	3.7%	1.8%
1Y	-51.0%	-6.4%	-5.7%

Return vs Industry: BCI underperformed the Australian Metals and Mining industry which returned -6.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BCI underperformed the Australian Market which returned -5.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BCI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BCI volatility
BCI Average Weekly Movement	8.7%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	12.3%
Market Average Movement	10.6%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	17.7%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.6%

Stable Share Price: BCI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BCI's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2006	n/a	Alwyn Vorster	https://www.bciminerals.com.au

BCI Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral assets in Australia. The company explores for salt, iron ore, and sulphate of potash deposits. It owns a 100% interest in the Mardie Salt and Potash Project located in the West Pilbara coast.

BCI Minerals Fundamentals Summary

How do BCI Minerals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BCI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$314.23m
Earnings (TTM)	AU$16.43m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$141.27m

18.4x

P/E Ratio

2.1x

P/S Ratio

Is BCI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BCI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$141.27m
Cost of Revenue	AU$112.80m
Gross Profit	AU$28.47m
Other Expenses	AU$12.04m
Earnings	AU$16.43m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Oct 31, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.014
Gross Margin	20.15%
Net Profit Margin	11.63%
Debt/Equity Ratio	4.2%

How did BCI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BCI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BCI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BCI. This is calculated by dividing BCI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BCI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$314.23m

BCI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BCI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BCI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BCI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.9x
RHI Red Hill Iron	1.6x	n/a	AU$222.8m
TIG Tigers Realm Coal	6.6x	n/a	AU$248.3m
BRL Bathurst Resources	2.8x	n/a	AU$173.2m
GRR Grange Resources	4.7x	n/a	AU$1.5b
BCI BCI Minerals	19.1x	-110.6%	AU$314.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BCI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the peer average (3.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BCI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BCI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (10.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BCI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BCI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.4x
Fair PE Ratio	0.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BCI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (0.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BCI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate BCI's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate BCI's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is BCI Minerals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-110.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BCI's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-110.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: BCI's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-110.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BCI's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BCI's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-24.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BCI's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-24.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BCI is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Past Performance

How has BCI Minerals performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

61.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BCI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BCI's current net profit margins (11.6%) are higher than last year (5.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BCI has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 61.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: BCI's earnings growth over the past year (262.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (61.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BCI earnings growth over the past year (262.5%) exceeded the Metals and Mining industry 54.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BCI's Return on Equity (3.7%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is BCI Minerals's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BCI's short term assets (A$336.9M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$30.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: BCI's short term assets (A$336.9M) exceed its long term liabilities (A$35.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BCI has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if BCI's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BCI's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (295.3%).

Interest Coverage: BCI earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is BCI Minerals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BCI's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BCI's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BCI's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BCI's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: BCI is not paying a notable dividend for the Australian market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BCI has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Alwyn Vorster

6.25yrs

Tenure

AU$959,535

Compensation

Mr. Alwyn Petrus Vorster, B.Sc (Honours) in Geology, MSc (Mineral Economics), MBA, has been Managing Director at BCI Minerals Limited since September 22, 2016 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Alwyn's total compensation ($USD672.93K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD552.08K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Alwyn's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BCI's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: BCI's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 101.6%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/17 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30