Aurelia Metals Limited Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 11% to AU$0.15. Revenues came in at AU$310m, in line with estimates, while Aurelia Metals reported a statutory loss of AU$0.0034 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aurelia Metals

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Aurelia Metals are now predicting revenues of AU$328.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 5.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 460% to AU$0.019 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of AU$324.5m and AU$0.0087 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target held steady at AU$0.21, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aurelia Metals at AU$0.27 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$0.08. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aurelia Metals' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.9% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 1.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aurelia Metals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Aurelia Metals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Aurelia Metals Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.