Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) - Share price, News & Analysis

REG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	2/6

REG Stock Overview

Regis Healthcare Limited provides residential aged care services in Australia.

Rewards

Trading at 61.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 35.96% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Dividend of 4.34% is not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Regis Healthcare Competitors

Estia Health

ASX:EHE

AU$501.5m

Virtus Health

ASX:VRT

AU$680.9m

Monash IVF Group

ASX:MVF

AU$372.1m

Pacific Smiles Group

ASX:PSQ

AU$290.4m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Regis Healthcare
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$1.88
52 Week High	AU$2.47
52 Week Low	AU$1.63
Beta	1.68
1 Month Change	-16.44%
3 Month Change	-12.15%
1 Year Change	-6.00%
3 Year Change	-28.52%
5 Year Change	-52.16%
Change since IPO	-53.23%

Recent News & Updates

Feb 25

Regis Healthcare Limited's (ASX:REG) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 34% Above Its Share Price

Does the February share price for Regis Healthcare Limited ( ASX:REG ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will...

Shareholder Returns

	REG	AU Healthcare	AU Market
7D	-3.8%	1.7%	1.4%
1Y	-6.0%	-3.0%	-11.3%

Return vs Industry: REG underperformed the Australian Healthcare industry which returned -3.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: REG exceeded the Australian Market which returned -12.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is REG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
REG volatility
REG Average Weekly Movement	5.7%
Healthcare Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	9.7%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	16.3%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.2%

Stable Share Price: REG is less volatile than 75% of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: REG's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1994	n/a	Linda Mellors	https://www.regis.com.au

Regis Healthcare Limited provides residential aged care services in Australia. It offers home care services, including personal hygiene, dressing and undressing, and mobility and transportation; home help services, such as cooking and cleaning, shopping and transportation, and facilitating social outings; aged care facilities; owns and operates specialist retirement and independent living villages, which provides laundry, meals, cleaning, and allied health services consist of physiotherapy, podiatry, diversional therapy, and therapeutic activities. The company also offers companionship and government-funded and private home care services; aged care services, including ageing-in-place, respite care, specialist dementia care, and palliative care services; in-home disability support and veterans’ home care services; Day Respite Programs for carers; and therapeutic services to people living in the community, in retirement villages, and aged care facilities.

Regis Healthcare Fundamentals Summary

How do Regis Healthcare's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
REG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$565.57m
Earnings (TTM)	AU$7.76m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$712.53m

72.9x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Is REG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
REG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$712.53m
Cost of Revenue	AU$583.96m
Gross Profit	AU$128.57m
Other Expenses	AU$120.81m
Earnings	AU$7.76m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.026
Gross Margin	18.04%
Net Profit Margin	1.09%
Debt/Equity Ratio	84.2%

How did REG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.3%

Current Dividend Yield

316%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is REG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for REG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for REG. This is calculated by dividing REG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is REG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$565.57m

REG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.5x
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does REG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

REG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for REG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	120.6x
EHE Estia Health	144.5x	8.0%	AU$501.5m
VRT Virtus Health	24x	n/a	AU$680.9m
MVF Monash IVF Group	16.5x	13.3%	AU$372.1m
PSQ Pacific Smiles Group	297.4x	97.9%	AU$290.4m
REG Regis Healthcare	72.9x	36.0%	AU$565.6m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: REG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (72.9x) compared to the peer average (120.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does REG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Healthcare Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: REG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (72.9x) compared to the Oceanic Healthcare industry average (22.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is REG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

REG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	72.9x
Fair PE Ratio	43.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: REG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (72.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of REG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: REG (A$1.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$4.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: REG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: REG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2x)

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Future Growth

How is Regis Healthcare forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

36.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: REG's forecast earnings growth (36% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: REG's earnings (36% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: REG's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: REG's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: REG's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: REG's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (170.9%).

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Past Performance

How has Regis Healthcare performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-36.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: REG has a large one-off gain of A$21.4M impacting its December 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: REG became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: REG's earnings have declined by 36% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: REG has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: REG has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Healthcare industry (35.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: REG's Return on Equity (6.2%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Regis Healthcare's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: REG's short term assets (A$68.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities (A$1.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: REG's short term assets (A$68.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities (A$150.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: REG's net debt to equity ratio (48.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: REG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 106.5% to 84.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: REG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (136.7%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if REG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Regis Healthcare current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.34%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: REG's dividend (4.34%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.77%).

High Dividend: REG's dividend (4.34%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.9%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: REG has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: REG has only been paying a dividend for 7 years, and since then payments have fallen.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (315.8%), REG's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (23.6%), REG's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Linda Mellors

2.75yrs

Tenure

AU$767,124

Compensation

Dr. Linda Jane Mellors, B.A., B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D. (Med) GAICD, Grad Cert HSM, has been Chief Executive Officer of Regis Healthcare Limited since September 4, 2019 and serves as its Managing Director and Di...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Linda's total compensation ($USD529.93K) is below average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD891.35K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Linda's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: REG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: REG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30