Cogstate (ASX:CGS) - Share price, News & Analysis

CGS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	6/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

CGS Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 57.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 26.96% per year

Earnings grew by 2812.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Cogstate Peers

Pro Medicus

ASX:PME

AU$4.3b

Capitol Health

ASX:CAJ

AU$338.0m

Pacific Smiles Group

ASX:PSQ

AU$281.7m

Monash IVF Group

ASX:MVF

AU$413.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Cogstate
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$1.72
52 Week High	AU$2.68
52 Week Low	AU$0.80
Beta	-0.038
1 Month Change	-26.40%
3 Month Change	-4.46%
1 Year Change	109.15%
3 Year Change	501.75%
5 Year Change	106.63%
Change since IPO	243.00%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 22

Investors Should Be Encouraged By Cogstate's (ASX:CGS) Returns On Capital

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'd want to identify a...

Oct 20

We Think Some Shareholders May Hesitate To Increase Cogstate Limited's (ASX:CGS) CEO Compensation

Performance at Cogstate Limited ( ASX:CGS ) has been reasonably good and CEO Brad O'Connor has done a decent job of...

Shareholder Returns

	CGS	AU Healthcare Services	AU Market
7D	-5.8%	-3.7%	-2.1%
1Y	109.1%	-15.9%	0.5%

Return vs Industry: CGS exceeded the Australian Healthcare Services industry which returned -15.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CGS exceeded the Australian Market which returned 0.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CGS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CGS volatility
CGS Average Weekly Movement	8.1%
Healthcare Services Industry Average Movement	8.7%
Market Average Movement	9.4%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	16.5%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.3%

Stable Share Price: CGS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CGS's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	171	Brad O'Connor	https://www.cogstate.com

Cogstate Limited, a cognitive science company, provides computerized cognitive tests for clinical trials, academic research, healthcare, and brain health applications in Australia and internationally. The company’s services include project management, data management, scientific consulting, statistical analysis, scales procurement, rater training, and monitoring solutions. It operates in Clinical Trials and Healthcare segments.

Cogstate Fundamentals Summary

How do Cogstate's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CGS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$197.88m
Earnings (TTM)	US$9.76m
Revenue (TTM)	US$41.91m

21.1x

P/E Ratio

4.9x

P/S Ratio

Is CGS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CGS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$41.91m
Cost of Revenue	US$16.84m
Gross Profit	US$25.07m
Other Expenses	US$15.30m
Earnings	US$9.76m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Jul 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.056
Gross Margin	59.82%
Net Profit Margin	23.30%
Debt/Equity Ratio	2.7%

How did CGS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

New valuation analysis is now available for all ASX stocks. This is in beta.

Future Growth

How is Cogstate forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

6/6

Future Growth Score 6/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

27.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CGS's forecast earnings growth (27% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: CGS's earnings (27% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CGS's revenue (24.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (4.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CGS's revenue (24.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CGS's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.1%)

Past Performance

How has Cogstate performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

51.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CGS has a large one-off gain of $2.4M impacting its December 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: CGS's current net profit margins (23.3%) are higher than last year (1.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CGS's earnings have grown significantly by 51% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CGS's earnings growth over the past year (2812.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (51% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CGS earnings growth over the past year (2812.4%) exceeded the Healthcare Services industry 13.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: CGS's Return on Equity (34.7%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is Cogstate's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CGS's short term assets ($37.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($15.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: CGS's short term assets ($37.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($8.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CGS has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if CGS's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CGS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (541.3%).

Interest Coverage: CGS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (187.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Cogstate current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CGS's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CGS's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CGS's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CGS's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CGS has not reported any payouts.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Healthcare industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Brad O'Connor

16.42yrs

Tenure

US$1,076,087

Compensation

Mr. Bradley O'Connor, also known as Brad, B.Bus, CA, has been the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Cogstate Limited since December 1, 2005 and served as its Chief Financial Officer since Ma...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Brad's total compensation ($USD1.08M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD559.51K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Brad's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CGS's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: CGS's board of directors are considered experienced (6.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/16 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30