Ampol (ASX:ALD) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALD (A$33.57) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$49.77)

ALD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

ALD Stock Overview

Ampol Limited purchases, refines, distributes, and markets petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 32.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 7.09% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.06% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Ampol Competitors

Viva Energy Group

ASX:VEA

AU$4.1b

Yancoal Australia

ASX:YAL

AU$7.2b

Beach Energy

ASX:BPT

AU$3.7b

New Hope

ASX:NHC

AU$3.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ampol
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$33.57
52 Week High	AU$37.55
52 Week Low	AU$25.76
Beta	0.83
1 Month Change	4.42%
3 Month Change	-2.19%
1 Year Change	22.52%
3 Year Change	26.63%
5 Year Change	2.25%
Change since IPO	1,143.33%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 15

Returns On Capital At Ampol (ASX:ALD) Paint A Concerning Picture

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...

Shareholder Returns

	ALD	AU Oil and Gas	AU Market
7D	0.9%	1.3%	1.8%
1Y	22.5%	38.2%	-5.7%

Return vs Industry: ALD underperformed the Australian Oil and Gas industry which returned 38.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALD exceeded the Australian Market which returned -5.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALD volatility
ALD Average Weekly Movement	4.0%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	11.7%
Market Average Movement	10.6%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	17.7%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.6%

Stable Share Price: ALD is less volatile than 75% of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALD's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1900	8,300	Matt Halliday	https://www.ampol.com.au

Ampol Limited purchases, refines, distributes, and markets petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. The company operates through Convenience Retail, and Fuels and Infrastructure segments. The Convenience Retail segment sells fuels through Ampol’s network of stores.

Ampol Fundamentals Summary

How do Ampol's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$8.00b
Earnings (TTM)	AU$560.00m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$21.63b

14.3x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is ALD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$21.63b
Cost of Revenue	AU$19.39b
Gross Profit	AU$2.24b
Other Expenses	AU$1.68b
Earnings	AU$560.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 22, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.35
Gross Margin	10.36%
Net Profit Margin	2.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.5%

How did ALD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.8%

Current Dividend Yield

40%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALD. This is calculated by dividing ALD's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALD's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$8.00b

ALD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8x
PEG Ratio	-221.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALD PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.1x
VEA Viva Energy Group	17.6x	-3.2%	AU$4.1b
YAL Yancoal Australia	9.1x	n/a	AU$7.2b
BPT Beach Energy	9.3x	6.5%	AU$3.7b
NHC New Hope	8.2x	8.8%	AU$3.8b
ALD Ampol	14.3x	-0.06%	AU$8.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the peer average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.3x
Fair PE Ratio	28x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALD (A$33.57) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$49.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Ampol forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-0.06%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALD's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.06% per year).

Earnings vs Market: ALD's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.06% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALD's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALD's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALD's revenue (7.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18%).

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Past Performance

How has Ampol performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALD has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALD became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALD's earnings have declined by 27.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALD has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ALD has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (299.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALD's Return on Equity (17.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Ampol's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALD's short term assets (A$4.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (A$2.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: ALD's short term assets (A$4.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (A$2.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALD's net debt to equity ratio (21.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALD's debt to equity ratio has increased from 24.9% to 38.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (49.2%).

Interest Coverage: ALD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Ampol current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

2.77%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ALD's dividend (2.77%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.56%).

High Dividend: ALD's dividend (2.77%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.41%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ALD's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ALD's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.7%), ALD's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (71.4%), ALD's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Matt Halliday

2.42yrs

Tenure

AU$4,925,372

Compensation

Mr. Matthew Halliday, also known as Matt, serves as Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Ampol Limited since June 29, 2020. Mr. Halliday serves as Director of Z Energy Limited since M...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Matt's total compensation ($USD3.45M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD2.59M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Matt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALD's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALD's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/17 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31