Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders in Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited (ASX:DMP) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 22% to AU$15.08 in the week since its latest full-year results. Revenues came in at AU$2.3b, in line with estimates, while Domino's Pizza Enterprises reported a statutory loss of AU$0.04 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Domino's Pizza Enterprises' 15 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be AU$2.31b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Domino's Pizza Enterprises is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of AU$1.24 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$2.33b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.38 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Domino's Pizza Enterprises

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 18% to AU$19.74, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Domino's Pizza Enterprises analyst has a price target of AU$41.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$13.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Domino's Pizza Enterprises' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 2.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Domino's Pizza Enterprises.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Domino's Pizza Enterprises' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Domino's Pizza Enterprises' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Domino's Pizza Enterprises analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Domino's Pizza Enterprises (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.