Shareholders have faith in loss-making Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD) as stock climbs 4.2% in past week, taking one-year gain to 33%

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 04, 2022
ASX:CTD
Source: Shutterstock

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the Corporate Travel Management Limited (ASX:CTD) share price is 33% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 12% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 2.5% in the last three years.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Corporate Travel Management investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's one-year performance.

See our latest analysis for Corporate Travel Management

Corporate Travel Management isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last year Corporate Travel Management saw its revenue shrink by 45%. The stock is up 33% in that time, a fine performance given the revenue drop. To us that means that there isn't a lot of correlation between the past revenue performance and the share price, but a closer look at analyst forecasts and the bottom line may well explain a lot.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:CTD Earnings and Revenue Growth January 4th 2022

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Corporate Travel Management

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Corporate Travel Management has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 33% in the last twelve months. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Corporate Travel Management , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Corporate Travel Management better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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