Fleetwood (ASX:FWD) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of FWD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FWD (A$1.74) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$9.91)

FWD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	2/6

FWD Stock Overview

Fleetwood Limited engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of modular accommodation units in Australia and New Zealand.

Rewards

Trading at 82.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 104.2% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 7.18% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Fleetwood Competitors

AVJennings

ASX:AVJ

AU$182.8m

Tamawood

ASX:TWD

AU$85.5m

Simonds Group

ASX:SIO

AU$28.0m

Gale Pacific

ASX:GAP

AU$82.9m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Fleetwood
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$1.74
52 Week High	AU$2.78
52 Week Low	AU$1.26
Beta	1.35
1 Month Change	5.46%
3 Month Change	8.08%
1 Year Change	-36.50%
3 Year Change	8.75%
5 Year Change	-39.16%
Change since IPO	2,576.92%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 06

Analysts' Revenue Estimates For Fleetwood Limited (ASX:FWD) Are Surging Higher

Celebrations may be in order for Fleetwood Limited ( ASX:FWD ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant...

Shareholder Returns

	FWD	AU Consumer Durables	AU Market
7D	0%	-0.1%	1.8%
1Y	-36.5%	-31.8%	-5.7%

Return vs Industry: FWD underperformed the Australian Consumer Durables industry which returned -31.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FWD underperformed the Australian Market which returned -5.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FWD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FWD volatility
FWD Average Weekly Movement	9.4%
Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement	6.4%
Market Average Movement	10.6%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	17.7%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.6%

Stable Share Price: FWD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FWD's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1964	600	Bruce Nicholson	https://www.fleetwoodlimited.com.au

Fleetwood Limited engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of modular accommodation units in Australia and New Zealand. It operates through three segments: RV Solutions, Building Solutions, and Accommodation Solutions. The company also engages in the operation of accommodation villages; and import, manufacture, and distribution of recreational vehicle parts and accessories, as well as the provision of associated services.

Fleetwood Fundamentals Summary

How do Fleetwood's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FWD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$164.06m
Earnings (TTM)	-AU$33.35m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$393.79m

0.4x

P/S Ratio

-4.9x

P/E Ratio

Is FWD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FWD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$393.79m
Cost of Revenue	AU$277.51m
Gross Profit	AU$116.29m
Other Expenses	AU$149.64m
Earnings	-AU$33.35m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 25, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.35
Gross Margin	29.53%
Net Profit Margin	-8.47%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did FWD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

7.2%

Current Dividend Yield

-35%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FWD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FWD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for FWD. This is calculated by dividing FWD's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is FWD's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$164.06m

FWD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FWD's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

FWD PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for FWD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.5x
AVJ AVJennings	0.6x	n/a	AU$182.8m
TWD Tamawood	0.8x	n/a	AU$85.5m
SIO Simonds Group	0.04x	n/a	AU$28.0m
GAP Gale Pacific	0.4x	n/a	AU$82.9m
FWD Fleetwood	0.4x	4.1%	AU$164.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FWD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FWD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Durables Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FWD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the Global Consumer Durables industry average (0.8x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FWD's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FWD PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.4x
Fair PS Ratio	1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: FWD is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FWD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FWD (A$1.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$9.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FWD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Fleetwood forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

104.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FWD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: FWD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: FWD is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FWD's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FWD's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FWD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.4%).

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Past Performance

How has Fleetwood performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-39.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FWD is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: FWD is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FWD is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 39.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare FWD's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: FWD is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Durables industry (-18.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: FWD has a negative Return on Equity (-19.17%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Fleetwood's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FWD's short term assets (A$190.6M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$121.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: FWD's short term assets (A$190.6M) exceed its long term liabilities (A$22.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FWD is debt free.

Reducing Debt: FWD has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 8.4%.

Debt Coverage: FWD has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: FWD has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Fleetwood current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

7.18%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: FWD's dividend (7.18%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.56%).

High Dividend: FWD's dividend (7.18%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.41%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: FWD's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: FWD's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: FWD is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (624.2%), FWD's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Bruce Nicholson

1.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Bruce Nicholson serves as Managing Director at Fleetwood Limited since August 01, 2022, also serves as Chief Executive Officer since July 01, 2021. Mr Nicholson was CEO and Managing Director of Waco Kw...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FWD's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FWD's board of directors are considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/17 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30