Did Changing Sentiment Drive Fleetwood’s (ASX:FWD) Share Price Down By 16%?

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn’t blame long term Fleetwood Corporation Limited (ASX:FWD) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 16% over a half decade. The good news is that the stock is up 4.8% in the last week.

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Check out our latest analysis for Fleetwood

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Fleetwood became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

We don’t think that the 0.5% is big factor in the share price, since it’s quite small, as dividends go. It could be that the revenue decline of 5.9% per year is viewed as evidence that Fleetwood is shrinking. That could explain the weak share price.

You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).

ASX:FWD Income Statement, May 26th 2019
ASX:FWD Income Statement, May 26th 2019

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Fleetwood in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Fleetwood, it has a TSR of -7.8% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Fleetwood shareholders are down 3.8% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.6% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Fleetwood by clicking this link.

Fleetwood is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.