The MyState (ASX:MYS) Share Price Is Down 11% So Some Shareholders Are Getting Worried

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It’s easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Investors in MyState Limited (ASX:MYS) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 11%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 6.7%. Longer term investors have fared much better, since the share price is up 6.3% in three years.

View our latest analysis for MyState

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unhappily, MyState had to report a 3.0% decline in EPS over the last year. The share price decline of 11% is actually more than the EPS drop. This suggests the EPS fall has made some shareholders are more nervous about the business.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:MYS Past and Future Earnings, May 10th 2019
ASX:MYS Past and Future Earnings, May 10th 2019

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on MyState’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of MyState, it has a TSR of -5.3% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

MyState shareholders are down 5.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 4.4%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of MyState by clicking this link.

MyState is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.