We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Liberty Financial Group Valuation

Is LFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LFG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LFG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio-1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9x
HLI Helia Group
6.1x-8.3%AU$934.8m
AFG Australian Finance Group
11.5x6.4%AU$447.3m
PPM Pepper Money
4.3x1.0%AU$637.5m
MYS MyState
13.9x10.2%AU$446.0m
LFG Liberty Financial Group
5.4x-4.1%AU$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the peer average (9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.4%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the Global Mortgage industry average (11.3x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.4x
Fair PE Ratio6.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LFG (A$3.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.92
AU$4.83
+23.3%
16.8%AU$6.35AU$3.95n/a6
Nov ’23AU$3.60
AU$4.94
+37.3%
14.6%AU$6.35AU$4.25n/a6
Oct ’23AU$3.95
AU$4.94
+25.1%
14.6%AU$6.35AU$4.25n/a6
Sep ’23AU$4.27
AU$4.94
+15.7%
14.6%AU$6.35AU$4.25n/a6
Aug ’23AU$4.01
AU$5.01
+24.9%
18.0%AU$6.50AU$4.10n/a6
Jul ’23AU$4.12
AU$5.06
+22.8%
17.4%AU$6.50AU$4.10n/a6
Jun ’23AU$4.99
AU$6.44
+29.0%
5.7%AU$7.00AU$6.00n/a4
May ’23AU$5.20
AU$6.44
+23.8%
5.7%AU$7.00AU$6.00n/a4
Apr ’23AU$5.16
AU$6.44
+24.8%
5.7%AU$7.00AU$6.00n/a4
Mar ’23AU$5.04
AU$7.09
+40.6%
8.6%AU$8.10AU$6.50n/a4
Feb ’23AU$5.48
AU$7.64
+39.4%
6.6%AU$8.10AU$6.74n/a5
Jan ’23AU$5.57
AU$7.64
+37.1%
6.6%AU$8.10AU$6.74n/a5
Dec ’22AU$5.68
AU$7.64
+34.5%
6.6%AU$8.10AU$6.74n/a5
Nov ’22AU$6.18
AU$8.06
+30.4%
1.7%AU$8.30AU$7.90AU$3.605
Oct ’22AU$6.96
AU$8.06
+15.7%
1.7%AU$8.30AU$7.90AU$3.955
Sep ’22AU$7.30
AU$8.32
+14.0%
2.6%AU$8.60AU$8.00AU$4.274
Aug ’22AU$7.47
AU$8.35
+11.8%
2.4%AU$8.60AU$8.10AU$4.013
Jul ’22AU$7.80
AU$8.62
+10.5%
3.2%AU$9.00AU$8.36AU$4.123
Jun ’22AU$7.47
AU$8.81
+17.9%
2.5%AU$9.02AU$8.50AU$4.993
May ’22AU$7.16
AU$8.96
+25.1%
0.7%AU$9.02AU$8.90AU$5.202
Apr ’22AU$7.30
AU$8.96
+22.7%
0.7%AU$9.02AU$8.90AU$5.162
Mar ’22AU$8.10
AU$8.96
+10.6%
0.7%AU$9.02AU$8.90AU$5.042
Feb ’22AU$7.79
AU$8.27
+6.2%
0%AU$8.27AU$8.27AU$5.481

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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