Österreichische Post's (VIE:POST) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock lifts 4.7% this past week

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 17, 2022
WBAG:POST
Source: Shutterstock

It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the Österreichische Post AG (VIE:POST) share price is down 27% in the last year. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 0.5%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 6.9% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 16% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

On a more encouraging note the company has added €88m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the one-year loss for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Österreichische Post

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Unfortunately Österreichische Post reported an EPS drop of 2.0% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 27% share price fall. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
WBAG:POST Earnings Per Share Growth May 17th 2022

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Österreichische Post's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Österreichische Post, it has a TSR of -23% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.5% in the twelve months, Österreichische Post shareholders did even worse, losing 23% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.2% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Österreichische Post better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Österreichische Post , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AT exchanges.

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