X5 Retail Group (WBAG:FIVE) - Share price, News & Analysis

FIVE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	1/6
Dividends	0/6

FIVE Stock Overview

X5 Retail Group N.V. operates as a food retailer in Russia.

Rewards

Trading at 99.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 13.16% per year

Earnings have grown 4.7% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Shares are highly illiquid

X5 Retail Group Competitors

Vodafone Group

LSE:VOD

UK£33.5b

IQVIA Holdings

NYSE:IQV

US$38.0b

ICON

NasdaqGS:ICLR

US$16.7b

Publicis Groupe

ENXTPA:PUB

€13.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for X5 Retail Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$10.00
52 Week High	US$30.60
52 Week Low	US$19.30
Beta	0.92
1 Month Change	0%
3 Month Change	-51.92%
1 Year Change	-62.12%
3 Year Change	-61.85%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-69.08%

Shareholder Returns

	FIVE	AT Consumer Retailing	AT Market
7D	0%	-4.0%	-8.6%
1Y	-62.1%	-8.4%	-4.9%

Return vs Industry: FIVE underperformed the Austrian Consumer Retailing industry which returned -8.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FIVE underperformed the Austrian Market which returned -4.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FIVE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FIVE volatility
FIVE Average Weekly Movement	n/a
Consumer Retailing Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	5.6%
10% most volatile stocks in AT Market	9.7%
10% least volatile stocks in AT Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: Insufficient data to determine FIVE's volatility over the past 3 months.

Volatility Over Time: Insufficient data to determine FIVE's volatility change over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1975	339,000	Igor Shekhterman	https://www.x5.ru

X5 Retail Group N.V. operates as a food retailer in Russia. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 19,121 company-operated stores, including 17,972 Pyaterochka proximity stores, 990 Perekrestok supermarkets, and 72 Chizhik hard discounters. It also engages in wholesale operations and online retail business, as well as providing franchise and other services.

X5 Retail Group Fundamentals Summary

How do X5 Retail Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FIVE fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₽9.77b
Earnings (TTM)	₽37.60b
Revenue (TTM)	₽2.30t

0.3x

P/E Ratio

0.0x

P/S Ratio

Is FIVE overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FIVE income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₽2.30t
Cost of Revenue	₽1.72t
Gross Profit	₽582.21b
Other Expenses	₽544.61b
Earnings	₽37.60b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	138.46
Gross Margin	25.29%
Net Profit Margin	1.63%
Debt/Equity Ratio	955.2%

How did FIVE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is X5 Retail Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: FIVE (€10) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€2561.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FIVE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: FIVE is good value based on its PE Ratio (0.3x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (14.5x).

PE vs Market: FIVE is good value based on its PE Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Austrian market (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FIVE is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: FIVE is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.1x) compared to the XE Consumer Retailing industry average (2x).

Future Growth

How is X5 Retail Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

13.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FIVE's forecast earnings growth (13.2% per year) is above the savings rate (0.2%).

Earnings vs Market: FIVE's earnings (13.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Austrian market (5.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FIVE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FIVE's revenue (10.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Austrian market (1.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FIVE's revenue (10.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FIVE's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (60.9%).

Past Performance

How has X5 Retail Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

4.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FIVE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FIVE's current net profit margins (1.6%) are higher than last year (1.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FIVE's earnings have grown by 4.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FIVE's earnings growth over the past year (17.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (4.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: FIVE earnings growth over the past year (17.6%) underperformed the Consumer Retailing industry 41.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst FIVE's Return on Equity (43.02%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Financial Health

How is X5 Retail Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FIVE's short term assets (RUB191.5B) do not cover its short term liabilities (RUB402.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: FIVE's short term assets (RUB191.5B) do not cover its long term liabilities (RUB692.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FIVE's net debt to equity ratio (940.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: FIVE's debt to equity ratio has increased from 125.5% to 955.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FIVE's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (25.5%).

Interest Coverage: FIVE's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is X5 Retail Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

594.26%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FIVE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FIVE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FIVE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FIVE's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: FIVE is not paying a notable dividend for the Austrian market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as FIVE has not reported any payouts.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Consumer Retailing industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Igor Shekhterman (51 yo)

6.5yrs

Tenure

₽275,000,000

Compensation

Mr. Igor Shekhterman has been the Chief Executive Officer and Member of Management Board at X5 Retail Group N.V. of Alfa Group Consortium since November 12, 2015, he focus on operations management of the b...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Igor's total compensation ($USD4.06M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Austrian market ($USD275.34K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Igor's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FIVE's management team is considered experienced (3.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: FIVE's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/02/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31