The three-year decline in earnings for Agthia Group PJSC ADX:AGTHIA) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 61% over that period

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 28, 2021
ADX:AGTHIA
Source: Shutterstock

It hasn't been the best quarter for Agthia Group PJSC (ADX:AGTHIA) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But at least the stock is up over the last three years. In that time, it is up 42%, which isn't bad, but not amazing either.

While the stock has fallen 4.4% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Agthia Group PJSC

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last three years, Agthia Group PJSC failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 21% (annualized).

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

It could be that the revenue growth of 6.0% per year is viewed as evidence that Agthia Group PJSC is growing. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ADX:AGTHIA Earnings and Revenue Growth November 29th 2021

We know that Agthia Group PJSC has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Agthia Group PJSC

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Agthia Group PJSC's TSR for the last 3 years was 61%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Agthia Group PJSC shareholders gained a total return of 31% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 1.2% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Agthia Group PJSC better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Agthia Group PJSC has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AE exchanges.

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