What Kind Of Share Price Volatility Should You Expect For NewLink Genetics Corporation (NASDAQ:NLNK)?

If you own shares in NewLink Genetics Corporation (NASDAQ:NLNK) then it’s worth thinking about how it contributes to the volatility of your portfolio, overall. In finance, Beta is a measure of volatility. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. The first type is company specific volatility. Investors use diversification across uncorrelated stocks to reduce this kind of price volatility across the portfolio. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.

Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said ‘volatility is far from synonymous with risk’ in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

View our latest analysis for NewLink Genetics

What NLNK’s beta value tells investors

Given that it has a beta of 1.32, we can surmise that the NewLink Genetics share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If the past is any guide, we would expect that NewLink Genetics shares will rise quicker than the markets in times of optimism, but fall faster in times of pessimism. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see NewLink Genetics’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

NasdaqGM:NLNK Income Statement, August 23rd 2019
NasdaqGM:NLNK Income Statement, August 23rd 2019

How does NLNK’s size impact its beta?

NewLink Genetics is a noticeably small company, with a market capitalisation of US$65m. Most companies this size are not always actively traded. It takes less money to influence the share price of a very small company. This may explain the excess volatility implied by this beta value.

What this means for you:

Since NewLink Genetics has a reasonably high beta, it’s worth considering why it is so heavily influenced by broader market sentiment. For example, it might be a high growth stock or have a lot of operating leverage in its business model. In order to fully understand whether NLNK is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as NewLink Genetics’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for NLNK’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for NLNK’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has NLNK been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of NLNK’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how NLNK measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.