We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available I have extrapolated the most recent reported free cash flow (FCF) based on the average annual revenue growth over the past five years. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow estimate
|Levered FCF (USD, Millions)||$46.14||$54.90||$64.79||$75.80||$87.93|
|Source||Extrapolated @ (20%, capped from 56.68%)||Extrapolated @ (19%, capped from 56.68%)||Extrapolated @ (18%, capped from 56.68%)||Extrapolated @ (17%, capped from 56.68%)||Extrapolated @ (16%, capped from 56.68%)|
|Present Value Discounted @ 9.87%||$41.99||$45.49||$48.85||$52.02||$54.93|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $243
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.5%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2021 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $88 × (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (9.9% – 2.5%) = $1,218
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = $1,218 / ( 1 + 9.9%)5 = $761
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $1,004. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $31.57, which, compared to the current share price of $19, we find that Green Plains Partners is quite good value at a 39.81% discount to what it is available for right now.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Green Plains Partners as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.982. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For GPP, I’ve compiled three essential factors you should further research:
1. Financial Health: Does GPP have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does GPP’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of GPP? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NASDAQ every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.