Does the July share price for Gateway Distriparks Limited (NSE:GDL) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (₹, Millions)||₹1.65b||₹1.77b||₹1.89b||₹2.02b||₹2.16b||₹2.32b||₹2.48b||₹2.66b||₹2.85b||₹3.05b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x4||Analyst x6||Est @ 6.81%||Est @ 6.93%||Est @ 7.01%||Est @ 7.06%||Est @ 7.1%||Est @ 7.13%||Est @ 7.15%||Est @ 7.16%|
|Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 18%||₹1.4k||₹1.3k||₹1.2k||₹1.0k||₹949||₹862||₹783||₹711||₹646||₹587|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹9.4b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 18%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹3.1b× (1 + 7.2%) ÷ (18%– 7.2%) = ₹31b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹31b÷ ( 1 + 18%)10= ₹5.9b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹15b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹79.3, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Gateway Distriparks as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 18%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.130. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Gateway Distriparks, we’ve put together three additional aspects you should further research:
- Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we’ve spotted with Gateway Distriparks (including 2 which are concerning) .
- Future Earnings: How does GDL’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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