How far off is SeaBird Exploration Plc (OB:SBX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There’s really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$9.60m||US$3.40m||US$1.33m||US$766.7k||US$543.9k||US$435.9k||US$377.4k||US$343.8k||US$324.0k||US$312.5k|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x2||Analyst x1||Est @ -60.98%||Est @ -42.2%||Est @ -29.06%||Est @ -19.86%||Est @ -13.42%||Est @ -8.91%||Est @ -5.75%||Est @ -3.54%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 22%||US$7.9||US$2.3||US$0.7||US$0.3||US$0.2||US$0.1||US$0.09||US$0.07||US$0.05||US$0.04|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$11m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 22%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$313k× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (22%– 1.6%) = US$1.6m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.6m÷ ( 1 + 22%)10= US$211k
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$11m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of kr4.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at SeaBird Exploration as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 22%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.777. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For SeaBird Exploration, we’ve put together three relevant factors you should look at:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for SeaBird Exploration we’ve flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does SBX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Norwegian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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