Did Changing Sentiment Drive Alliance Data Systems’s (NYSE:ADS) Share Price Down By 48%?

For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn’t blame long term Alliance Data Systems Corporation (NYSE:ADS) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 48% over a half decade. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 46%. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 2.2%.

See our latest analysis for Alliance Data Systems

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

While the share price declined over five years, Alliance Data Systems actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 9.9% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we’re inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

The modest 2.0% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 8.0% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time.

NYSE:ADS Income Statement, September 27th 2019
NYSE:ADS Income Statement, September 27th 2019

We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It’s always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for Alliance Data Systems in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We’d be remiss not to mention the difference between Alliance Data Systems’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Alliance Data Systems’s TSR, which was a 46% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 2.6% in the last year, Alliance Data Systems shareholders lost 45% (even including dividends) . Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

We will like Alliance Data Systems better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.