Did Aptiv’s (NYSE:APTV) Share Price Deserve to Gain 29%?

Investors can buy low cost index fund if they want to receive the average market return. But in any diversified portfolio of stocks, you’ll see some that fall short of the average. For example, the Aptiv PLC (NYSE:APTV) share price return of 29% over three years lags the market return in the same period. Zooming in, the stock is actually down 9.9% in the last year.

See our latest analysis for Aptiv

To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over the last three years, Aptiv failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 2.2% (annualized). Based on these numbers, we think that the decline in earnings per share may not be a good representation of how the business has changed over the years. So other metrics may hold the key to understanding what is influencing investors.

The modest 1.1% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. Do you think that shareholders are buying for the 1.7% per annum revenue growth trend? We don’t. So truth be told we can’t see an easy explanation for the share price action, but perhaps you can…

NYSE:APTV Income Statement, August 12th 2019
NYSE:APTV Income Statement, August 12th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Aptiv the TSR over the last 3 years was 60%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Aptiv had a tough year, with a total loss of 8.9% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 3.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 9.0% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Aptiv by clicking this link.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.