We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. Where possible I use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past five years, but capped at a reasonable level. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF (AUD, Millions)||A$43.50||A$82.50||A$98.00||A$102.00||A$110.02|
|Source||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Analyst x1||Extrapolated @ (7.86%)|
|Present Value Discounted @ 8.76%||A$40.00||A$69.75||A$76.18||A$72.91||A$72.31|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= A$331
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.8%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2021 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = A$110 × (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (8.8% – 2.8%) = A$1,885
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = A$1,885 / ( 1 + 8.8%)5 = A$1,239
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is A$1,570. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of A$4.39, which, compared to the current share price of A$4.8, we find that Navitas is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Navitas as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.828. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For NVT, I’ve put together three important factors you should further research:
1. Financial Health: Does NVT have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does NVT’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of NVT? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every AU stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.