In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (NYSEMKT:GDP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won’t be able to understand it, just read on! It’s actually much less complex than you’d imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
What’s the estimated valuation?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$32.6m||US$26.0m||US$22.4m||US$20.4m||US$19.3m||US$18.6m||US$18.3m||US$18.3m||US$18.3m||US$18.5m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x4||Analyst x1||Est @ -13.75%||Est @ -8.96%||Est @ -5.61%||Est @ -3.26%||Est @ -1.61%||Est @ -0.46%||Est @ 0.34%||Est @ 0.9%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12%||US$29.1||US$20.8||US$16.1||US$13.1||US$11.0||US$9.6||US$8.4||US$7.5||US$6.7||US$6.1|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$128m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 12%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$18m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (12%– 2.2%) = US$198m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$198m÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= US$65m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$193m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$8.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 42% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Goodrich Petroleum as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.592. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Goodrich Petroleum, we’ve put together three additional elements you should assess:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we’ve spotted with Goodrich Petroleum .
- Future Earnings: How does GDP’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the AMEX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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