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Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Aquila Resources Inc. (TSE:AQA) shareholders have enjoyed a 90% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 0.6% (not including dividends).
Aquila Resources didn’t have any revenue in the last year, so it’s fair to say it doesn’t yet have a proven product (or at least not one people are paying for). As a result, we think it’s unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Aquila Resources will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
As a general rule, if a company doesn’t have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress – and share price – will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Aquila Resources investors have already had a taste of the sweet taste stocks like this can leave in the mouth, as they gain popularity and attract speculative capital.
Our data indicates that Aquila Resources had US$31,445,645 more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in March 2019. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. So the fact that the stock is up 14% per year, over 5 years shows that high risks can lead to high rewards, sometimes. It’s clear more than a few people believe in the potential. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Aquila Resources’s cash levels have changed over time.
It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn’t even have revenue. There’s no way to know its value easily. However you can take a look at whether insiders have been buying up shares. It’s often positive if so, assuming the buying is sustained and meaningful. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).
A Different Perspective
Investors in Aquila Resources had a tough year, with a total loss of 31%, against a market gain of about 0.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 14%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Before spending more time on Aquila Resources it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
But note: Aquila Resources may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.