CPT: Healthy Operating Trends And Buybacks Will Support Upside Into 2025

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Camden Property Trust slightly lower by about $1 to reflect modestly softer long term growth and margin assumptions, even as they continue to cite broadly healthy operating conditions for residential REITs.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts are broadly maintaining constructive views on Camden Property Trust, even as they trim price targets to reflect more conservative assumptions around long term growth and profitability. The updated targets still sit above recent trading levels, indicating that the Street sees upside potential but with less room for execution missteps.

Bullish analysts continue to highlight resilient fundamentals in the multifamily sector, supported by solid occupancy, steady rent collections, and a relatively favorable supply backdrop in many of Camden's core markets. At the same time, more cautious voices are tempering expectations for near term reacceleration in earnings growth given macro uncertainty and the potential for wage and operating cost pressures.

The resulting valuation adjustments have been incremental rather than dramatic. This suggests that the Street views recent target changes as fine tuning of models following Q3 updates instead of a material shift in the long term thesis.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the modest target cuts as a recalibration of assumptions rather than a downgrade of Camden's structural positioning. Updated price objectives are still viewed as implying an attractive risk reward profile.
Healthy operating conditions across residential REITs, including stable demand and manageable supply, are viewed as supportive of Camden's ability to sustain cash flow growth and dividend coverage.
Overweight and Buy level stances reflect confidence that Camden can execute on its strategy, maintain high occupancy, and benefit from potential rental growth as macro conditions stabilize.
Some models still embed premium valuation multiples versus peers, which analysts attribute to Camden's portfolio quality, balance sheet discipline, and visibility into long term growth drivers.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are trimming price targets to factor in slightly softer long term growth and margin assumptions. This signals that upside may be more limited if rent growth normalizes faster than expected.
Equal Weight type views indicate concern that current valuation already reflects much of the positive fundamental backdrop, leaving less room for error on execution or macro trends.
Updated models incorporate risks around wage inflation and operating expenses, which could constrain margin expansion and weigh on earnings leverage if not offset by rent increases.
Continued macro and labor market uncertainty is leading some to favor a more balanced stance on Camden, particularly if higher for longer interest rates keep sector valuations under pressure.

What's in the News

Updated full year 2025 earnings guidance to diluted EPS of $2.42 to $2.46, raising the midpoint to $2.44 from $2.38, while modestly trimming the midpoint of same property revenue growth guidance to 0.75 percent from 1.00 percent (Key Developments).
Issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting diluted EPS of $0.33 to $0.37, giving investors greater visibility into near term performance expectations (Key Developments).
Reported progress on its long running share repurchase program, buying back 465,742 shares, or 0.43 percent of shares outstanding, for $49.99 million between July 1, 2025 and November 7, 2025, bringing total repurchases since the April 4, 2007 authorization to 5,283,603 shares, or 8.67 percent, for $330.45 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has edged down slightly from 117.11 to 116.67, reflecting modestly softer long-term assumptions.
The discount rate has decreased marginally from 7.17 percent to 7.16 percent, indicating a slightly lower required return in updated models.
Revenue growth has been revised down slightly from 4.21 percent to 4.16 percent, signaling a minor tempering of top-line expectations.
Net profit margin has fallen modestly from 10.03 percent to 9.92 percent, incorporating higher cost pressures into projections.
The future P/E multiple has risen slightly from 84.44x to 85.17x, suggesting a small increase in the implied valuation relative to expected earnings.

Strong apartment demand, market migration, and limited new supply are expected to drive higher occupancy and outpace peer revenue growth.
Strategic asset upgrades and disciplined capital management support higher margins, resilient cash flow, and adaptability to changing market conditions.
Heavy geographic and economic exposure, reliance on robust job growth, supply pressures, and regulatory uncertainty pose risks to occupancy, margins, and long-term earnings growth.

Catalysts

About Camden Property Trust

An S&P 500 Company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition, and construction of multifamily apartment communities.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Record-high apartment demand, improving affordability (wages outpacing rent growth for 31 months), and strong resident retention due to high homeownership costs are strengthening Camden's occupancy and ability to grow revenues-laying the groundwork for outsized rent growth as supply moderates in 2026–2027.
Sustained migration and population growth in Sun Belt markets (e.g., Austin, Dallas, Tampa, Phoenix) where Camden is concentrated are expected to drive robust rental housing demand, supporting long-term revenue and NOI growth above peer averages.
Supply additions in Camden's markets have peaked and new starts are down as much as 76% in some major metros; this predictable, sharp reduction in new deliveries is likely to restore pricing power, leading to anticipated rent growth of 4–5%+ in 2026–2027, accelerating top-line growth.
Ongoing asset repositioning (kitchen and bath renovations) and disciplined recycling into newer, lower-capex communities are boosting rental yields and margin expansion, positioning Camden for higher net operating income as market conditions normalize.
Camden's strong balance sheet, low leverage, and limited near-term refinancing risk provide flexibility to capitalize on market upcycles, supporting long-term FFO and EPS growth even in a higher-rate environment.

Camden Property Trust Earnings and Revenue Growth

Camden Property Trust Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Camden Property Trust's revenue will grow by 4.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.9% today to 11.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $201.9 million (and earnings per share of $2.07) by about September 2028, up from $155.7 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $280.2 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $109.1 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 80.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 76.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Residential REITs industry at 32.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.16% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.18%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Camden Property Trust Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Camden's outsized concentration in Sun Belt cities like Austin and Nashville exposes it to risks if those high-growth markets face local economic slowdowns or prolonged oversupply, leading to weaker revenue growth and margin compression if demand doesn't keep pace with new supply and recent rent softness persists.
The company's reliance on continued strong job growth and healthy consumer sentiment, as emphasized by management, creates vulnerability if the broader U.S. economy stumbles, labor market growth slows further, or a recession materializes, which would put pressure on occupancy and rent levels, impacting both revenue and net operating income.
Elevated levels of new apartment supply in certain Camden markets, especially Austin and Nashville, have led to slower-than-anticipated lease-ups and increased competitive concessions; although supply is expected to decrease, if absorption fails to keep pace, revenue growth could remain below expectations and near-term earnings could lag.
Ongoing disposition of older, higher CapEx assets in favor of newer properties induces short-term dilution, and if newly acquired or developed communities underperform or additional CapEx is required to remain competitive, net margins, free cash flow, and long-term earnings growth could be negatively impacted.
While Camden has maintained strong operational performance, any significant increase in property tax or insurance expenses, heightened political risk (such as local rent control), or regulatory intervention could incrementally erode profitability and long-term earnings potential, particularly as the regulatory environment around multifamily housing continues to evolve.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $122.898 for Camden Property Trust based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $142.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $112.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $201.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 80.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
Given the current share price of $111.63, the analyst price target of $122.9 is 9.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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