Last Update 24 Feb 26

ZION: Regional Bank Tailwinds And Credit Wildcard Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have made only a slight adjustment to their price target for Zions Bancorporation National Association, keeping fair value essentially unchanged at about $67 while refining assumptions such as the discount rate and forward P/E after a mix of target hikes and a downgrade across recent research reports.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Zions Bancorporation National Association presents a mixed picture, with several firms refining price targets and at least one downgrade balancing out a series of target increases. For you as an investor, the key themes cluster around how much upside is already reflected in the share price versus how much execution risk and macro sensitivity still matter.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see regional and mid cap bank fundamentals as relatively stable, with comments pointing to strengthening loan and revenue trends and credit conditions that are largely in check. They view this as supportive for Zions' earnings power over time.
Several recent price target increases, including one to $70 from Goldman Sachs, indicate that some analysts see current valuation as leaving room for further upside if Zions can deliver on loan growth, net interest income momentum, and positive operating leverage.
Some firms describe the broader regional and mid cap bank group as poised for a potential "catch up" compared with larger peers, with robust merger activity and a steepening yield curve mentioned as supports. Bullish analysts extend this view to Zions' medium term growth outlook.
Comments about being constructive on regional banks into upcoming earnings seasons suggest that a portion of the Street is comfortable that Zions' current fundamentals align reasonably well with its sector and do not see major near term balance sheet or credit surprises as their base case.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to a lack of near term fundamental catalysts for Zions, arguing that much of the bank's expected outlook is already reflected in the current share price. In their view, this limits upside even with broadly stable sector fundamentals.
A downgrade from Outperform to a more neutral stance underscores concern that valuation is now more "fair" than cheap, with less margin for error if growth in loans, fees, or earnings comes in below current expectations.
Some research highlights credit risk as the main wildcard for regional banks, suggesting that if credit trends weaken, Zions' earnings path and capital flexibility could come under pressure. This would challenge the more optimistic price targets.
References to macro concerns and credit worries weighing on regional banks in the recent past serve as a reminder that the sector, including Zions, can remain sensitive to shifts in rates, economic conditions, and regulatory views. This sensitivity may limit how aggressively some analysts are willing to value the shares.

What's in the News

The Board of Directors authorized a share buyback plan on January 30, 2026, indicating approval for the company to repurchase its own stock (Key Developments).
Zions Bancorporation National Association announced a share repurchase program of up to US$75 million, valid through the first quarter of 2026 (Key Developments).
The bank reported unaudited total net charge offs of US$7 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared with US$36 million a year earlier (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: $66.57 remains unchanged, with the updated estimate matching the prior figure exactly.
Discount Rate: 7.12% has been refined slightly lower from 7.12%, reflecting a very small adjustment in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: 4.64% is effectively unchanged, with the updated assumption aligned with the previous forecast.
Net Profit Margin: 25.97% remains consistent, indicating no material shift in expected profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: 12.20x is modestly higher than the prior 12.12x, implying a slightly richer multiple being used for forward earnings.

Investments in digital banking and advisory services are strengthening efficiency, boosting noninterest income, and reducing reliance on traditional lending.
Targeted growth in key commercial segments and strong regional economies are diversifying revenue sources and stabilizing long-term earnings.
Geographic concentration, commercial real estate exposure, competitive pressures, tech investment gaps, and regulatory uncertainty all threaten long-term profitability and earnings stability.

Catalysts

About Zions Bancorporation National Association

Provides various banking products and related services primarily in the states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing investment in digital capabilities-including a modern, AI-enabled core banking platform-positions Zions to capitalize on increasing demand for efficient, tech-driven banking services, lowering operational costs and improving the efficiency ratio, which should drive net margin expansion.
Robust loan growth, particularly in commercial and small business sectors, is being supported by positive demographic and economic trends in the Mountain West and Southwest, leading to a larger addressable customer base and sustained increases in both net interest income and fee-based revenues.
The tailored rollout of the consumer gold account and focus on mass affluent and wealth management clients leverage shifting wealth and entrepreneurial activity in Zions' key regions, diversifying revenue streams and increasing noninterest income, which should stabilize earnings across cycles.
The growing contribution of capital markets and fee-generating advisory businesses, including M&A and commodity risk management, provides a scalable path to higher noninterest income, reducing reliance on traditional lending and supporting future revenue growth.
A disciplined risk management culture and improved asset mix-with continued low loan losses and well-managed CRE exposure-enhances long-term earnings stability and supports above-peer capital generation, benefiting future earnings and tangible book value growth.

Zions Bancorporation National Association Earnings and Revenue Growth

Zions Bancorporation National Association Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Zions Bancorporation National Association's revenue will grow by 3.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 25.4% today to 23.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $818.0 million (and earnings per share of $5.75) by about September 2028, up from $806.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $994.6 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $702 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.06% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Zions Bancorporation National Association Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Zions' heavy geographic concentration in the Western United States (notably markets like Nevada, California, Texas, and Utah) exposes it to regional economic volatility-should a downturn hit regional energy, tech, or real estate sectors, this could drive up credit losses and depress long-term earnings stability.
Despite ongoing repricing tailwinds, management acknowledges limited further room for deposit cost reductions-if competition intensifies, or if customer behavior shifts away from noninterest-bearing accounts (which have shown recent erosion), net interest margins and overall profitability could be pressured.
Commercial real estate (CRE) loans account for 22% of Zions' total loan balances; while the portfolio is currently granular and performing well, sector-wide CRE distress or a sharp property value correction could lead to significant loan losses, asset write-downs, and weaker capital ratios.
Zions is investing in digitization and fintech capabilities, but as a mid-sized regional bank, it faces a structural disadvantage to larger peers in terms of technology scale and resources; this may result in persistently higher efficiency ratios and compressed margins if digital disruption accelerates.
Persistent regulatory uncertainty-including the timing and specifics of Basel III Endgame, evolving capital requirements, and potential for rising compliance costs-could constrain Zions' ability to return capital, pursue M&A, or flexibly allocate resources, negatively impacting shareholder returns and long-term earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $61.619 for Zions Bancorporation National Association based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $69.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $57.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.5 billion, earnings will come to $818.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of $56.9, the analyst price target of $61.62 is 7.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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