ZION: Regional Bank Tailwinds And Credit Wildcard Will Guide Steady Fair Value Path

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Zions Bancorporation National Association higher by about $0.50, with small adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions reflecting a series of recent target increases across the Street.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Zions Bancorporation National Association over the past several months shows a cluster of price target moves, rating changes, and updated views on regional banks as a group. For you as an investor, the key themes fall into two clear camps, with some focusing on potential upside in the fundamentals and others flagging valuation and execution risks.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight regional bank fundamentals as relatively stable, pointing to expectations for strengthening loan and revenue growth, which they see as supportive of Zions' earnings power over time.
Several price target increases into the low to mid US$60s and one to US$70 signal that some on the Street see room for the shares to better reflect expected loan growth, net interest income momentum, and improving returns.
One major bank notes that regional banks underperformed the broader market in 2025, while still seeing scope for multi year fundamental improvement, which they tie to potential positive operating leverage at institutions like Zions.
The upgrade to Buy from Hold at one firm, along with a higher target to US$60, is framed around confidence that a prior fraud related charge off was an isolated issue and that core trends in loans and deposits can support execution on the current business plan.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts, or those more cautious, point to a lack of near term fundamental catalysts, arguing that the current valuation already reflects Zions' outlook and limits the margin for error on execution.
One firm kept its price target unchanged at US$65 while downgrading the rating, suggesting that even with an overall constructive view on regional banks, they see fewer stock specific drivers for additional upside at Zions in the short term.
Another research house trimmed its target to US$63 from US$64 and maintained a Hold stance, underscoring that, despite expecting solid sector level reports, they are not prepared to assign a higher multiple to Zions at this stage.
Across the more cautious commentary, credit risk is flagged as the main wildcard for regional banks, which could affect both earnings quality and the P/E investors are willing to pay if future credit trends differ from current expectations.

What's in the News

The Board of Directors authorized a share buyback plan on January 30, 2026, indicating approval for repurchases of company stock (Key Developments).
Zions Bancorporation National Association announced a share repurchase program of up to US$75 million, with the program scheduled to run through the first quarter of 2026 (Key Developments).
For the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, the bank reported unaudited total net charge offs of US$7 million, compared with US$36 million a year earlier (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The fair value estimate moved from US$66.05 to US$66.57, a small upward adjustment of about US$0.52.
Discount Rate: The discount rate shifted slightly from 7.13% to 7.12%, a very small change in the risk assumption used in the model.
Revenue Growth: The assumed revenue growth rate moved from 4.66% to 4.64%, a minimal adjustment that keeps the outlook for top line expansion broadly similar.
Net Profit Margin: The profit margin input adjusted from 25.94% to 25.97%, a modest change that slightly raises the modeled level of profitability.
Future P/E: The future P/E assumption moved from 12.03x to 12.12x, a small increase in the multiple applied to projected earnings.

Investments in digital banking and advisory services are strengthening efficiency, boosting noninterest income, and reducing reliance on traditional lending.
Targeted growth in key commercial segments and strong regional economies are diversifying revenue sources and stabilizing long-term earnings.
Geographic concentration, commercial real estate exposure, competitive pressures, tech investment gaps, and regulatory uncertainty all threaten long-term profitability and earnings stability.

Catalysts

About Zions Bancorporation National Association

Provides various banking products and related services primarily in the states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing investment in digital capabilities-including a modern, AI-enabled core banking platform-positions Zions to capitalize on increasing demand for efficient, tech-driven banking services, lowering operational costs and improving the efficiency ratio, which should drive net margin expansion.
Robust loan growth, particularly in commercial and small business sectors, is being supported by positive demographic and economic trends in the Mountain West and Southwest, leading to a larger addressable customer base and sustained increases in both net interest income and fee-based revenues.
The tailored rollout of the consumer gold account and focus on mass affluent and wealth management clients leverage shifting wealth and entrepreneurial activity in Zions' key regions, diversifying revenue streams and increasing noninterest income, which should stabilize earnings across cycles.
The growing contribution of capital markets and fee-generating advisory businesses, including M&A and commodity risk management, provides a scalable path to higher noninterest income, reducing reliance on traditional lending and supporting future revenue growth.
A disciplined risk management culture and improved asset mix-with continued low loan losses and well-managed CRE exposure-enhances long-term earnings stability and supports above-peer capital generation, benefiting future earnings and tangible book value growth.

Zions Bancorporation National Association Earnings and Revenue Growth

Zions Bancorporation National Association Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Zions Bancorporation National Association's revenue will grow by 3.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 25.4% today to 23.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $818.0 million (and earnings per share of $5.75) by about September 2028, up from $806.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $994.6 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $702 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.06% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Zions Bancorporation National Association Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Zions' heavy geographic concentration in the Western United States (notably markets like Nevada, California, Texas, and Utah) exposes it to regional economic volatility-should a downturn hit regional energy, tech, or real estate sectors, this could drive up credit losses and depress long-term earnings stability.
Despite ongoing repricing tailwinds, management acknowledges limited further room for deposit cost reductions-if competition intensifies, or if customer behavior shifts away from noninterest-bearing accounts (which have shown recent erosion), net interest margins and overall profitability could be pressured.
Commercial real estate (CRE) loans account for 22% of Zions' total loan balances; while the portfolio is currently granular and performing well, sector-wide CRE distress or a sharp property value correction could lead to significant loan losses, asset write-downs, and weaker capital ratios.
Zions is investing in digitization and fintech capabilities, but as a mid-sized regional bank, it faces a structural disadvantage to larger peers in terms of technology scale and resources; this may result in persistently higher efficiency ratios and compressed margins if digital disruption accelerates.
Persistent regulatory uncertainty-including the timing and specifics of Basel III Endgame, evolving capital requirements, and potential for rising compliance costs-could constrain Zions' ability to return capital, pursue M&A, or flexibly allocate resources, negatively impacting shareholder returns and long-term earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $61.619 for Zions Bancorporation National Association based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $69.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $57.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.5 billion, earnings will come to $818.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of $56.9, the analyst price target of $61.62 is 7.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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