RCO: Expanding US And China Investments Will Support Business Recovery Ahead

Key Takeaways

• Strategic investments and innovative opportunities are prioritized to drive future revenue growth despite current sales challenges.
  
• Rigorous cost management and targeted marketing investments aim to stabilize financials and boost profitability, particularly in the U.S. and China.
  
• Macroeconomic challenges, rising costs, competitive pressures, and regulatory uncertainties threaten Rémy Cointreau's profitability, margins, and long-term growth despite cost-saving efforts.

Catalysts

Engages in the production, sale, and distribution of liqueurs and spirits.

• Rémy Cointreau's focus on strategic investments, exploring innovative opportunities, and maintaining competitive edge prepares them for growth recovery, which could positively impact future revenue growth.
  
• Rigorous and agile cost and cash management have been prioritized, which is expected to enhance financial stability and potentially improve net margins.
  
• Cost-saving measures, including a reduction in A&P expenses and streamlining OpEx, show a commitment to maintaining profitability even as sales decline, which may support future earnings growth.
  
• Plans to reintroduce targeted A&P investments in the second half to support sales during peak periods suggest preparation for improved revenue in the U.S. and China.
  
• The expansion beyond Cognac and exploration of untapped geographical areas could drive growth in new markets, potentially increasing future revenues and boosting earnings.

Rémy Cointreau Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Rémy Cointreau's revenue will grow by 3.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.3% today to 13.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach €146.2 million (and earnings per share of €2.76) by about September 2028, up from €121.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €192.8 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €96.8 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.7x on those 2028 earnings, down from 23.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Beverage industry at 19.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.07% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.98%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Rémy Cointreau Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company reported a 16% decline in group sales and a 17.6% decrease in operating profit on an organic basis, indicating macroeconomic challenges that may continue to impact revenue and profitability.
  
• There is a noted erosion in gross margin due to production cost inflation and an unfavorable mix effect. The pressure on margins could persist if inflation and cost pressures remain, impacting net margins.
  
• The company is implementing cost savings and optimizing its A&P (advertising and promotion) spend, but reducing A&P spend by 21.8% organically could impact future brand equity and long-term revenue growth if not managed carefully.
  
• The market dynamics in key regions such as the U.S. and China are challenging, with aggressive pricing from competitors and slow pace of recovery in the U.S. Cognac market, which could impact top-line growth and earnings.
  
• Uncertainty regarding regulatory issues like the 38.1% provisional tax duty by China's MOFCOM could affect operational costs and EBIT margins if imposed, further straining financial performance.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €54.739 for Rémy Cointreau based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €75.2, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €40.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €1.1 billion, earnings will come to €146.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.0%.
• Given the current share price of €53.7, the analyst price target of €54.74 is 1.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.