Last Update 27 Nov 25
Fair value Increased 0.81%AMUN: Distribution Partnerships And Earnings Resilience Will Define Near-Term Performance
Amundi's analyst price target was raised modestly from EUR 73.21 to EUR 73.80. This reflects analysts' continued confidence in the company's outlook despite recent sector volatility and mixed target adjustments across the Street.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a split in sentiment regarding Amundi’s performance outlook, with both upward and downward price target revisions reflecting diverging analyst perspectives. These adjustments are closely tied to Amundi’s operational execution, valuation benchmarks, and growth prospects amid market developments.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have notably increased price targets in recent weeks, some moving above EUR 80. This signals positive expectations for Amundi’s earnings and business trajectory.
- Multiple price target increases suggest that some in the market believe Amundi’s fundamentals remain solid, justified by strong underlying growth metrics and resilience compared to sector peers.
- The prevailing Buy and Equal Weight ratings, even as targets move higher, reflect confidence in management’s ability to execute and weather sector volatility.
- Continued upward adjustments by major banks highlight ongoing trust in Amundi’s long-term value creation, despite temporary uncertainties.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have cut targets as low as EUR 63, primarily citing concerns about key partnerships, including uncertainty around the UniCredit distribution agreement.
- Downgrades and Neutral ratings by leading banks point to caution regarding growth momentum and the potential impact of sector headwinds.
- The reduction in price targets reflects wariness over Amundi’s ability to sustain recent performance if sector volatility persists.
- Some analysts see downside risk to valuation, referencing mixed performance on strategic agreements and variable market demand.
What's in the News
- Amundi S.A. sets financial targets for 2028, aiming for earnings per share of more than EUR 7 (Key Developments).
- Announces strategic partnership with ICG, including a 10-year global wealth channel distribution arrangement and the acquisition of a 9.9% economic stake in ICG (Key Developments).
- Reaches agreement in principle with Societe Generale to renew a five-year distribution and securities services partnership, which is pending regulatory approvals (Key Developments).
- Board meeting is scheduled for October 27, 2025, to review third quarter and nine-month 2025 financial statements (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Increased slightly from €73.21 to €73.80, reflecting updated analyst assessments.
- Discount Rate: Decreased modestly from 11.56% to 11.34%, suggesting a slightly lower perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth: Declined from -18.77% to -19.21%, indicating a marginally larger contraction in anticipated revenue.
- Net Profit Margin: Edged down from 38.64% to 38.30%, reflecting a small decrease in expected profitability.
- Future P/E: Increased from 14.78x to 15.19x, pointing to higher forward earnings multiples applied by analysts.
Key Takeaways
- Growth in European ETFs and responsible investments could drive future revenue increases by capturing more market share.
- Strategic geographic expansion and partnerships in Asia suggest revenue growth via increased market penetration and client assets.
- Proposed French tax may reduce Amundi's net profits while strategic challenges and competition in Europe and Asia could affect growth and profitability.
Catalysts
About Amundi- Amundi is a publically owned investment manager.
- Amundi's strong growth in ETF assets and inflows, particularly with a focus on responsible investments, points to potential future revenue increases as the firm continues to capture significant market share in the European ETF market.
- The expansion in Technology & Services, with technology revenues up by 42%, highlights anticipated earnings growth as Amundi diversifies and increases its client base across geographies.
- The partnership with SBI in India and a direct presence in other Asian markets underscore an expected rise in revenues from increased market penetration and capturing growing client assets in these regions.
- Strategic investments in fixed income platforms, which have generated notable inflows, suggest enhanced long-term revenue growth driven by demand for secure and attractive return solutions.
- The successful integration of Alpha Associates and the planned partnership with Victory Capital indicate potential enhancements in net margins and earnings, leveraging synergies and expanded product offerings in private markets and U.S. opportunities.
Amundi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Amundi's revenue will decrease by 18.4% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 24.4% today to 39.1% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach €1.5 billion (and earnings per share of €7.09) by about September 2028, down from €1.7 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as €1.6 billion.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 7.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Capital Markets industry at 19.7x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.05% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.76%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Amundi Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The exceptional tax contribution proposed by the French government could significantly impact Amundi's net profits, with estimated additional tax charges of between €60-70 million for 2024 and €40-50 million for 2025, potentially reducing net margins.
- Amundi's exit from a large European insurance multi-asset mandate results in the loss of €12 billion in AUM, which may negatively affect asset management fees and thus impact revenue growth.
- Continued competition in Italy, especially from sovereign bonds like BTPs, may lead to sustained outflows from Amundi's Italian retail networks, potentially affecting revenue and inflows.
- While Amundi sees growth in Asian joint ventures, challenges in the Chinese market, including regulatory changes and risk aversion from clients, have led to net outflows in certain areas, potentially impacting overall earnings.
- The anticipated change in interest rates may affect the shift between treasury assets and more lucrative active and passive funds, which could delay improvements in margins and revenue growth if retail investors remain risk-averse.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of €76.521 for Amundi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €89.9, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €68.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €3.7 billion, earnings will come to €1.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.8%.
- Given the current share price of €62.2, the analyst price target of €76.52 is 18.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.