Japan Tobacco Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Japan Tobacco is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 10.3% and 4.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.9% in 3 years.
Key information
10.3%
Earnings growth rate
10.30%
EPS growth rate
| Tobacco earnings growth | 9.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.7% |
| Future return on equity | 16.90% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 01 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Analysis Article • May 11
Japan Tobacco Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Japan...Analysis Article • Mar 27
Japan Tobacco Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Investors in Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.2% to close at JP¥5,978 following...Analysis Article • Feb 15
Japan Tobacco Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
As you might know, Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) recently reported its yearly numbers. It looks like the results were...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 05
2914: Future Cash Flow Assumptions Will Support Fairly Balanced Return Profile
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Japan Tobacco from ¥6,442.73 to ¥6,524.55, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as support for the higher target. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for Jun 5, 2026, to consider and approve the disposal of treasury shares for restricted stock remuneration and performance share units, as well as other business matters.Narrative Update • May 15
2914: Future Dividend And Earnings Assumptions Will Support Fairly Balanced Returns
Analysts have raised their price target for Japan Tobacco from ¥6,131.67 to ¥6,442.73, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly lower discount rate, modestly adjusted revenue growth, a marginally higher profit margin, and a P/E multiple that now reflects a somewhat richer earnings valuation. Valuation Changes Fair Value: The updated analyst fair value estimate has moved from ¥6,131.67 to ¥6,442.73, representing a small upward adjustment in the valuation level applied to the stock.Analysis Article • May 11
Japan Tobacco Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Japan...Narrative Update • Apr 26
2914: Future Dividend Guidance And Earnings Outlook Will Support Balanced Returns
Analysts have nudged their price target on Japan Tobacco slightly higher to about ¥6,132 from roughly ¥6,107, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that point to a modestly adjusted outlook. What's in the News Japan Tobacco provided dividend guidance for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, with an expected dividend of ¥121.00 per share, compared with ¥104.00 per share a year earlier (company guidance).Narrative Update • Apr 12
2914: Future Earnings Guidance And Dividend Outlook Will Support Balanced Returns
Analysts have kept their ¥6,106.67 price target for Japan Tobacco broadly unchanged, citing only minor tweaks to inputs such as the discount rate and long term P/E assumptions. What's in the News Japan Tobacco issued consolidated earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending 31 December 2026, guiding for revenue of ¥3,697.0b, operating profit of ¥921.0b, profit attributable to owners of parents of ¥570.0b, and basic EPS of ¥321.06 (company guidance).Analysis Article • Mar 27
Japan Tobacco Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Investors in Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.2% to close at JP¥5,978 following...Narrative Update • Mar 27
2914: Higher Dividends And Stable Margins Will Support Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have inched their blended fair value estimate for Japan Tobacco slightly lower to about ¥6,107 per share, reflecting a small adjustment to discount rate assumptions alongside updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Japan Tobacco issued dividend guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with an expected payment of ¥121.00 per share compared with ¥104.00 per share a year earlier (company guidance).Narrative Update • Mar 13
2914: Higher Dividends And Stable Margins Will Support Balanced Long Term Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Japan Tobacco slightly, from ¥6,065 to ¥6,115, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E that together result in a modestly higher fair value estimate. What's in the News Japan Tobacco issued dividend guidance for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, with an expected payout of ¥121.00 per share, compared with ¥104.00 a year earlier (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 26
2914: Higher Dividends And Stable Profitability Will Support Balanced Long Term Returns
Narrative Update Analysts now set their price target for Japan Tobacco at ¥6,065, compared with the prior ¥5,902.50, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that modestly adjust their valuation framework. What's in the News Japan Tobacco issued dividend guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, expecting a dividend of ¥121.00 per share compared with ¥104.00 a year earlier, and outlined a fiscal year end 2025 dividend of ¥130.00 per share compared with ¥97.00 previously, with payment scheduled for March 26, 2026 (company guidance).Analysis Article • Feb 15
Japan Tobacco Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
As you might know, Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) recently reported its yearly numbers. It looks like the results were...Narrative Update • Feb 11
2914: Leadership Transition And Steady Fundamentals Will Support Balanced Long Term Returns
Analysts have nudged their price target on Japan Tobacco higher from ¥5,832 to ¥5,903, citing small model updates in fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E assumptions. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for October 30, 2025, to consider and resolve a change in management responsibilities effective December 1, 2025 (company event filing).Narrative Update • Jan 27
2914: Dividend Increase And Management Changes Will Support Balanced Long Term Returns
Analysts have raised their price target for Japan Tobacco to ¥5,832 from ¥5,744, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that modestly adjust their fair value outlook. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for October 30, 2025, with an agenda to consider and resolve changes in management responsibilities effective December 1, 2025 (company event filing).Analysis Article • Jan 24
Japan Tobacco's (TSE:2914) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Narrative Update • Jan 11
2914: Dividend Hike And Management Changes Will Support Steady Future Returns
Analysts have modestly lifted their fair value estimate for Japan Tobacco from ¥5,440 to about ¥5,744, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly lower discount rate, partly offset by a somewhat lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for October 30, 2025, with an agenda to consider and resolve changes in management responsibility effective December 1, 2025 (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 09
Investors Interested In Japan Tobacco Inc.'s (TSE:2914) Earnings
Japan Tobacco Inc.'s ( TSE:2914 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19x might make it look like a sell right now...Analysis Article • Dec 23
Japan Tobacco's (TSE:2914) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
Japan Tobacco Inc.'s ( TSE:2914 ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to ¥130.00 on...Narrative Update • Dec 16
2914: Dividend Increase And Management Changes Will Support Steady Future Performance
Analysts have modestly increased their price target on Japan Tobacco to ¥5,440 from ¥5,440 previously, reflecting slightly lower discount rate assumptions and a marginally reduced forward price to earnings multiple that together support a steady fair value outlook. What's in the News Revised year end dividend guidance for fiscal 2025 to JPY 130.00 per share, up from a previously expected JPY 104.00, signaling stronger shareholder returns (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Dec 09
Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At ¥130.00
Japan Tobacco Inc.'s ( TSE:2914 ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to ¥130.00 on...Narrative Update • Dec 02
2914: Executive Changes And Dividend Increase Will Drive Steady Performance
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Japan Tobacco from ¥5,240 to ¥5,440. This change reflects increased confidence in revenue growth and profitability projections.Analysis Article • Nov 22
An Intrinsic Calculation For Japan Tobacco Inc. (TSE:2914) Suggests It's 29% Undervalued
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Japan Tobacco fair value estimate is JP¥8,074 Japan Tobacco is...Narrative Update • Nov 18
2914: Revenue Outlook And Dividend Guidance Will Support Measured Performance
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Japan Tobacco from ¥5,099 to ¥5,240. They cite improved revenue growth forecasts and a slightly higher profit margin outlook as reasons for the increase.Analysis Article • Nov 03
Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Is Increasing Its Dividend To ¥130.00
Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 27th of March to...Narrative Update • Nov 02
2914: Profit Margin Gains And Dividend Outlook Will Support Measured Performance
Analysts have raised their price target for Japan Tobacco from ¥4,974 to ¥5,099, citing slightly improved profit margin forecasts even though the outlook for revenue growth remains tempered. What's in the News Japan Tobacco revised its year-end 2025 dividend guidance and increased the expected cash dividend to JPY 130.00 per share from the previously expected JPY 104.00 per share (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Oct 19
Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success
Narrative Update on Japan Tobacco: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have raised their price target for Japan Tobacco from ¥4,920 to ¥4,974. They cite modest improvements in projected revenue growth and a slightly lower discount rate as key factors in the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 05
Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success
Japan Tobacco's analyst price target has risen from ¥4,811.67 to ¥4,920.00. This reflects modest improvements in revenue growth and profit margin forecasts, with analysts highlighting a stable global nicotine market outlook.Analysis Article • Sep 29
Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Will Pay A Dividend Of ¥104.00
Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥104.00 per share on the 27th of March...Narrative Update • Sep 20
Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success
Japan Tobacco's consensus price target saw a marginal increase to ¥4,812, as revenue growth and net profit margin forecasts remained effectively stable. What's in the News Announced increased second quarter dividend to JPY 104.00 per share from JPY 97.00, and raised year-end dividend guidance to JPY 104.00 per share.Analysis Article • Sep 18
There Are Reasons To Feel Uneasy About Japan Tobacco's (TSE:2914) Returns On Capital
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Typically, we'll want to notice a...Narrative Update • Sep 05
Reduced-risk Offerings And International Markets Will Secure Long-Term Success
With both the discount rate and future P/E ratio for Japan Tobacco showing only marginal changes, analysts have kept their consensus price target steady at ¥4758. What's in the News Increased second quarter dividend to JPY 104.00 per share, up from JPY 97.00 last year; year-end dividend guidance also raised to JPY 104.00 per share.Analysis Article • Sep 02
Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Has Announced A Dividend Of ¥104.00
The board of Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 27th of March, with...Analysis Article • Jul 24
Pinning Down Japan Tobacco Inc.'s (TSE:2914) P/E Is Difficult Right Now
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.3x Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) may be sending bearish signals at...Analysis Article • Jul 09
An Intrinsic Calculation For Japan Tobacco Inc. (TSE:2914) Suggests It's 48% Undervalued
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Japan Tobacco fair value estimate is JP¥7,970 Current share...Analysis Article • Jun 23
Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of ¥97.00
The board of Japan Tobacco Inc. ( TSE:2914 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥97.00 per share on the 4th...Analysis Article • Jun 20
Here's Why Japan Tobacco (TSE:2914) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...
New Narrative • Nov 07
The Strategic Expansion And Vector Acquisition Propel Growth And US Market Dominance
Strategic U.S. acquisitions increase market share and revenue stability, supporting growth and profitability in high-margin segments.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 4,165,843 | 744,993 | 711,266 | 857,977 | 11 |
| 12/31/2027 | 3,966,227 | 682,364 | 651,552 | 795,144 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 3,779,870 | 610,388 | 519,741 | 686,865 | 11 |
| 3/31/2026 | 3,589,766 | 540,890 | 401,476 | 560,225 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 3,467,675 | 498,036 | 351,670 | 514,056 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 3,456,543 | 536,606 | 371,101 | 524,993 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 3,314,410 | 193,973 | 388,393 | 537,256 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 3,236,407 | 463,583 | 409,346 | 561,606 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 3,149,759 | 179,240 | 479,644 | 630,011 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 3,077,337 | 482,692 | 323,055 | 468,595 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 3,018,157 | 500,451 | 487,210 | 620,360 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,916,132 | 494,870 | 452,145 | 573,184 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,841,077 | 482,288 | 445,800 | 567,014 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,806,302 | 480,919 | 517,123 | 630,610 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,783,816 | 465,662 | 470,759 | 580,475 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,741,605 | 463,290 | 391,665 | 500,479 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,657,832 | 442,716 | 384,391 | 483,799 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,567,311 | 403,484 | 418,474 | 513,599 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 2,447,127 | 377,363 | 437,562 | 534,221 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,358,977 | 348,814 | 525,115 | 625,538 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 2,324,838 | 338,490 | 495,991 | 598,909 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 2,266,539 | 391,118 | 444,917 | 550,607 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 2,206,882 | 362,948 | 461,871 | 568,071 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,120,307 | 337,666 | 432,684 | 534,130 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,092,561 | 310,253 | 411,213 | 519,833 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,133,975 | 289,990 | 563,632 | 680,799 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 2,147,295 | 294,234 | 322,730 | 445,106 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 2,189,824 | 313,723 | 286,198 | 417,299 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 2,175,626 | 348,190 | N/A | 540,410 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 2,173,891 | 369,139 | N/A | 291,541 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 2,199,240 | 396,035 | N/A | 454,169 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 2,206,334 | 402,506 | N/A | 502,356 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 2,215,962 | 385,677 | N/A | 461,389 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 2,222,573 | 391,397 | N/A | 512,378 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 2,169,594 | 382,867 | N/A | 607,885 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 2,148,565 | 390,929 | N/A | 569,933 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 2,139,653 | 392,409 | N/A | 419,212 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 2,117,649 | 405,385 | N/A | 631,285 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 2,111,738 | 400,236 | N/A | 523,701 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 2,115,337 | 381,741 | N/A | 478,328 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 2,143,287 | 421,695 | N/A | 376,549 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 2,182,953 | 431,398 | N/A | 348,092 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 2,234,542 | 433,787 | N/A | 318,620 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 2,232,079 | 439,426 | N/A | 436,459 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 2,252,884 | 398,176 | N/A | 468,432 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: 2914's forecast earnings growth (10.3% per year) is above the savings rate (0.8%).
Earnings vs Market: 2914's earnings (10.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the JP market (9.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: 2914's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: 2914's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the JP market (5.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: 2914's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: 2914's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.9%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/09 07:37 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/09 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Japan Tobacco Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Pallav Mittal | Barclays |
| Takayuki Hayano | Barclays |
| Gaurav Jain | Barclays |