Aspen Technology, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AZPN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$14.5b

Aspen Technology Valuation

Is AZPN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AZPN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AZPN ($235.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($285.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AZPN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AZPN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AZPN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA35.5x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AZPN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AZPN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15x
DT Dynatrace
10.5x13.7%US$15.6b
MANH Manhattan Associates
17.4x10.1%US$17.4b
IOT Samsara
24.7x19.1%US$27.5b
NTNX Nutanix
7.6x13.1%US$16.2b
AZPN Aspen Technology
13.2x7.2%US$14.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AZPN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AZPN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.8%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.8%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AZPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.2x) compared to the US Software industry average (4.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AZPN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AZPN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio13.2x
Fair PS Ratio5.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AZPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AZPN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$235.81
US$239.03
+1.4%
8.5%US$265.00US$215.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$234.14
US$223.65
-4.5%
7.9%US$250.00US$200.00n/a8
Aug ’25US$182.01
US$220.01
+20.9%
10.0%US$255.00US$180.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$197.87
US$220.01
+11.2%
10.0%US$255.00US$180.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$210.65
US$199.12
-5.5%
30.8%US$255.00US$36.00n/a9
May ’25US$195.18
US$195.12
-0.03%
30.6%US$255.00US$36.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$215.19
US$193.89
-9.9%
30.5%US$255.00US$36.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$199.87
US$193.89
-3.0%
30.5%US$255.00US$36.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$195.57
US$193.67
-1.0%
30.5%US$255.00US$36.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$220.15
US$188.88
-14.2%
32.9%US$255.00US$36.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$198.14
US$185.38
-6.4%
32.7%US$255.00US$36.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$175.39
US$180.25
+2.8%
32.9%US$255.00US$36.00n/a8
Oct ’24US$204.26
US$175.00
-14.3%
33.0%US$255.00US$36.00n/a8
Sep ’24US$194.16
US$175.00
-9.9%
33.0%US$255.00US$36.00US$234.148
Aug ’24US$180.71
US$171.88
-4.9%
33.3%US$255.00US$36.00US$182.018
Jul ’24US$167.61
US$190.00
+13.4%
33.4%US$255.00US$36.00US$197.878
Jun ’24US$164.96
US$190.00
+15.2%
33.4%US$255.00US$36.00US$210.658
May ’24US$176.48
US$193.13
+9.4%
33.0%US$255.00US$36.00US$195.188
Apr ’24US$228.87
US$201.50
-12.0%
33.5%US$280.00US$36.00US$215.198
Mar ’24US$214.58
US$201.50
-6.1%
33.5%US$280.00US$36.00US$199.878
Feb ’24US$206.82
US$201.50
-2.6%
33.5%US$280.00US$36.00US$195.578
Jan ’24US$205.40
US$225.86
+10.0%
35.8%US$283.00US$36.00US$220.157
Dec ’23US$239.49
US$225.86
-5.7%
35.8%US$283.00US$36.00US$198.147
Nov ’23US$240.97
US$225.86
-6.3%
35.8%US$283.00US$36.00US$175.397
Oct ’23US$238.20
US$192.00
-19.4%
35.9%US$255.00US$36.00US$204.267
Sep ’23US$208.11
US$189.14
-9.1%
35.3%US$255.00US$36.00US$194.167

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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