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NPN: Future Returns Will Reflect Lower Margins And Higher Required Yield

Regulatory And Geopolitical Risks Will Constrain Future Prospects

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NPN
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Aug 2025

Update shared on 19 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 77%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
31.9%
7D
4.8%

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Naspers from approximately R5,295 to about R1,243. This reflects a more conservative stance on long term profitability and valuation multiples despite relatively stable growth expectations.

What's in the News

  • Naspers Limited announced an increased annual dividend of ZAR 5.08 per share, payable on December 08, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of December 03, 2025, and a record date of December 05, 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has fallen significantly, from roughly ZAR 5,295.04 to about ZAR 1,242.88 per share, indicating a much more conservative intrinsic valuation.
  • The discount rate has risen slightly, from about 21.02 percent to approximately 21.10 percent, reflecting a marginally higher required return.
  • Revenue growth has edged lower, from an expected 10.84 percent to around 10.45 percent annually, signaling slightly more cautious growth assumptions.
  • The net profit margin has dropped sharply, from an estimated 72.50 percent to roughly 46.98 percent, implying lower long term profitability expectations.
  • The future P/E has increased meaningfully, from around 9.57 times to about 16.94 times earnings, indicating that the revised valuation assumes a higher earnings multiple despite reduced profit margins.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.