Update shared on12 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.93%Despite softer first-half operational performance and continued weakness in the South Africa Gold segment, analysts have raised Sibanye Stillwater’s price target to ZAR32.40, driven by a stronger outlook for platinum group metals and benefit from improved PGM prices.
Analyst Commentary
- Softer first-half operational performance, particularly in the South Africa Gold business, led to another guidance downgrade.
- Production is expected to be slightly back-end weighted for the year.
- The platinum group metals (PGM) segment continues to be the company’s mainstay.
- The company is viewed as well-positioned to benefit from the recent uptick in PGM prices.
- Despite operational softness, improved PGM price outlook drives a more positive valuation.
What's in the News
- Sibanye Stillwater expects first half 2025 headline earnings per share (HEPS) to rise over 100% year-on-year, while basic loss per share is anticipated to improve by 55%-60% due to lower impairment losses from US PGM operations and Keliber lithium project.
- Group-wide production, excluding SA gold, was consistent year-on-year and within guidance, with SA PGM operations steady and cost control maintained; PGM prices increased 19% since May 2025, potentially boosting future earnings if sustained.
- SA gold production declined 13% year-on-year in first half 2025 due to ongoing operational challenges at Kloof, with recovery at Driefontein and Beatrix; production is expected to improve in the second half, contingent on gold price stability.
- Century zinc retreatment output rose 22% year-on-year; US PGM mined production met guidance, though recycling volumes remained below prior year due to weak auto market dynamics.
- Public Investment Corporation Limited increased its stake in Sibanye Stillwater by 5.16%, reaching a 20.2% ownership level.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Sibanye Stillwater
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from ZAR31.79 to ZAR32.40.
- The Net Profit Margin for Sibanye Stillwater has significantly risen from 12.17% to 14.47%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Sibanye Stillwater has significantly risen from 5.2% per annum to 6.1% per annum.
Disclaimer
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