Analysts have raised Sibanye Stillwater’s price target to ZAR33.44 as they anticipate a gradual operational recovery and medium-term upside from stronger PGM prices, despite near-term gold challenges.
Analyst Commentary
- Expectations of a gradual operational recovery with production weighted toward the second half of the year.
- Recent guidance downgrade for the South African Gold business tempering near-term outlook.
- Ongoing strength and strategic significance of the platinum group metals (PGM) segment for Sibanye Stillwater.
- Anticipation that the company will benefit from the recent uptick in PGM prices.
- Mixed short-term performance, but positioning for medium-term upside as PGM market conditions improve.
What's in the News
- Sibanye Stillwater expects first half 2025 headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 180–200 SA cents, over 19 times higher than prior year, while basic EPS loss improves by over 55% due to reduced impairments but remains negative, mainly from US PGM and Keliber lithium project writedowns.
- Group production for first half 2025 (excluding SA gold) was stable and within guidance, with SA PGM operations delivering steady output; however, surface PGM production fell 30% due to first quarter rainfall.
- PGM prices have rallied sharply since May 2025, with the average basket price for third quarter to date 19% higher than first half 2025, suggesting potential for higher earnings if strong pricing persists.
- SA gold operations' production declined 13% due to ongoing operational challenges, especially at Kloof, though improvements seen at Driefontein and Beatrix are expected to lift output and earnings in second half 2025 if rand gold price holds.
- Public Investment Corporation Limited increased its stake in Sibanye Stillwater by 5.16%, now holding 20.2% of the company.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Sibanye Stillwater
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from ZAR32.40 to ZAR33.44.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Sibanye Stillwater has significantly risen from 6.1% per annum to 6.9% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Sibanye Stillwater has fallen slightly from 14.47% to 14.15%.
Disclaimer
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