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SSW: Future Returns Will Depend On Chrome Agreement Cash Flows

Improving Metal Prices And Leadership Changes Will Drive Profit Outlook

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SSW
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 23 Apr 2025

Update shared on 21 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.19%
Previous
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
251.2%
7D
0.9%

Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on Sibanye Stillwater to around $50.07 from approximately $50.16, citing moderate reductions in the assumed discount rate, upgraded forecasts for revenue growth and profit margins, and a somewhat lower future price to earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • Concluded a three year wage agreement at South African gold operations with AMCU, NUM, UASA, and Solidarity. The agreement delivers average annual increases of about 5.4 percent for bargaining unit employees (company announcement).
  • Reached a USD 215 million commercial settlement with Appian Capital Advisory related to the terminated Atlantic Nickel and Mineração Vale Verde transaction. The settlement avoids a quantum trial that had been scheduled for November 2025 (legal settlement filing).
  • All conditions have been fulfilled for new chrome agreements with the Glencore Merafe Venture. The agreements are expected to accelerate contracted chrome volumes by around 20 years and enhance cash flow and operational efficiencies at South African PGM operations (company announcement).
  • Richard Stewart formally took over as Chief Executive Officer on 1 October 2025, succeeding long serving CEO Neal Froneman after a 12 year tenure (corporate governance update).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate edged down slightly to 50.07 from 50.16, reflecting modest model refinements.
  • Discount Rate decreased marginally to 19.97 percent from 20.08 percent, implying a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth was revised up to 12.26 percent from 10.76 percent, indicating a more optimistic outlook on top line expansion.
  • Net Profit Margin increased modestly to 22.04 percent from 21.55 percent, driven by expectations of improved operating efficiencies.
  • Future P/E was reduced to 7.03x from 7.52x, suggesting a more conservative multiple applied to forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.