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HAR: Copper Project And Payout Policy Will Shape Balanced Medium Term Outlook

Analysts Lift Harmony Gold Price Target Amid Improved Profit Outlook and Updated Production Guidance

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HAR
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 09 Feb 2025

Update shared on 04 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 8.15%
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Analysts have raised their price target for Harmony Gold Mining to around $365 from $337, reflecting higher assumed revenue growth and valuation multiples, despite more conservative margins and only a modest uptick in the discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Approved the high margin, long life Eva Copper Project after completing a three year feasibility update and FEED phase with Tier 1 contractors, significantly de risking the development pipeline and expanding exposure to copper alongside gold (Key Developments)
  • Targeting first copper production from the Eva Project in the second half of calendar 2028, with ramp up timing planned to coincide with an anticipated structural copper supply gap that could support stronger long term pricing (Key Developments)
  • Independent analysis estimates the Eva Copper Project could add over AUD 17 billion to Queensland's gross state product over its anticipated 15 year mine life, while creating substantial construction and operational employment in the North West region (Key Developments)
  • Reported first quarter fiscal 2026 production, with group gold output down 8 percent year over year to 12 128 kg, but confirmed operations remain on track to meet full year guidance (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has increased from ZAR 337.5 to ZAR 365.0, representing a moderate upward revision in the analyst price target.
  • The discount rate has edged up slightly from 18.66 percent to 18.77 percent, implying a modestly higher risk or required return assumption.
  • Revenue growth has been raised from 13.01 percent to 14.03 percent, indicating a small but notable improvement in expected top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin has been reduced significantly from 38.08 percent to 28.41 percent, reflecting more conservative profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E has risen markedly from 8.65x to 12.24x, indicating a higher valuation multiple being applied to projected earnings.

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