Update shared on 03 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 12%Analysts have raised Gold Fields' fair value estimate by approximately $85 to $789, citing updated forecasts for improved profit margins, revenue growth, as well as a supportive outlook for gold prices and capital returns.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on Gold Fields highlights both optimism and caution among analysts regarding the company’s future prospects, as reflected in recent ratings and price target adjustments.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have issued higher price targets for Gold Fields, citing improved gold price outlooks and continued sector momentum.
- Recently resumed coverage with an Overweight rating signals positive expectations for the company’s upcoming capital markets day and potential project announcements.
- The Windfall project is viewed as a potential medium-term growth catalyst. This supports further upside to valuation and execution.
- Capital returns and ongoing merger and acquisition momentum are considered supportive of shareholder value and earnings growth.
- Some bearish analysts have recently downgraded the stock and flagged concerns over valuation after recent outperformance.
- Rising costs, despite production guidance tracking as planned, are seen as a risk to margin expansion and near-term profitability.
- Uncertainty surrounding precious metals prices due to global macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may pose volatility in revenue forecasts.
- Moderation in rating recommendations suggests a more cautious stance on immediate upside, with some favoring a Hold position following recent share gains.
What's in the News
- Gold Fields agreed to sell a A$1.1 billion stake in Gold Road's Northern Star Resources as part of a deal to take control of an Australian gold mine (Bloomberg).
- An affiliate of Gold Fields will proceed with the second stage of a USD 48 million earn-in option at Torq Resources' Santa Cecilia project. Drilling is scheduled to begin in early to mid-November.
- Gold Fields reported gold production of 585,000 ounces for the second quarter of 2025, compared to 454,000 ounces in the prior year period.
- The Board of Gold Fields declared an interim dividend of 700 SA cents per ordinary share for the six months ended June 2025.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has increased from ZAR 704.56 to ZAR 789.23, reflecting an updated, higher valuation for Gold Fields.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 18.30% to 18.41%, indicating a marginally greater required rate of return.
- Revenue Growth projection has increased from 12.85% to 13.95%, signaling improved expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has risen from 32.57% to 36.15%, supporting the outlook for stronger profitability.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased slightly from 19.61x to 19.29x, which points to slightly lower expectations for future earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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