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EXX: Future Profit Margin Pressure Will Likely Weigh On Share Price

Accelerating Decarbonization Will Erode Coal Revenues And Exports

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EXX
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 28 Jul 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.39%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
9.5%
7D
1.5%

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Exxaro Resources from R150.02 to R149.44. This reflects expectations of stronger revenue growth, somewhat lower profit margins, and a modestly higher future price to earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • Exxaro Resources Limited revised its production guidance for fiscal 2025, lowering expected total production to 39,577,000 tonnes from a previous forecast of 41,204,000 tonnes (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate decreased slightly from ZAR 150.02 to ZAR 149.44 per share, reflecting a marginally lower intrinsic valuation.
  • The discount rate was reduced modestly from 17.24 percent to 16.73 percent, indicating a slightly lower required return in the updated model.
  • Revenue growth increased significantly from 1.01 percent to approximately 4.28 percent, pointing to stronger top line expectations.
  • The net profit margin declined from 13.02 percent to about 11.33 percent, suggesting somewhat weaker profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E ratio rose slightly from 9.83 times to about 10.10 times, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

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Disclaimer

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