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SPP: Earnings Reset Will Define Risk Profile Amid Modest Margin Outlook

Declining Footfall And European Losses Will Squeeze Retail Margins

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SPP
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 02 Aug 2025

Update shared on 19 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 6.31%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-38.5%
7D
0.08%

Analysts have trimmed their price target on SPAR Group to $104.00 from $111.00, reflecting slightly higher perceived risk despite modestly improved growth and margin expectations.

What's in the News

  • SPAR Group issued earnings guidance for the 52 weeks ending September 26, 2025, projecting EPS of 375.4 to 458.9 cents per share, significantly below the prior year's 834.3 cents per share (company guidance).
  • Diluted EPS for the same period is expected to range from 375.3 to 458.7 cents per share, down from 834.0 cents per share a year earlier, signaling a substantial profit reset (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate reduced modestly from ZAR 111.00 to ZAR 104.00, indicating a slightly lower intrinsic valuation.
  • Discount Rate risen slightly from 18.64 percent to 19.00 percent, reflecting a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth Assumption increased from effectively flat growth of 0.29 percent to 3.03 percent, signaling a more constructive top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin nudged higher from 1.50 percent to 1.51 percent, implying a small expected improvement in profitability.
  • Future P/E Multiple eased slightly from 15.61 times to 15.45 times, suggesting a marginally more conservative valuation multiple.

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Disclaimer

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