Update shared on 26 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.84%Analysts have lowered ArcBest's fair value estimate from approximately $84.67 to $81.42. This change reflects more cautious expectations around revenue growth and profit margins, despite continued optimism about its long-term positioning and potential earnings leverage in an improving freight cycle.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates have provided a nuanced view of ArcBest's valuation and prospects. There is both optimism regarding its ability to capitalize on market cycles and caution given ongoing macro and industry-specific challenges. The following breakdown highlights key bullish and bearish takeaways from recent research notes.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to ArcBest’s robust free cash flow projections, which are expected to surpass consensus estimates, particularly if the freight cycle continues to improve.
- The company is seen as offering some of the highest operating leverage in its sector. This positions it to benefit meaningfully from cyclical upswings in freight demand.
- Ongoing improvement in operational efficiency and a credible long-term plan support the view that ArcBest provides attractive value for investors seeking exposure to less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics.
- The stable service levels and a well-structured network add to analysts' confidence in the company’s ability to execute and deliver growth toward its multi-year earnings targets.
- Several analysts remain cautious about the near-term revenue environment, highlighting that recent guidance reflects continued weak freight demand.
- Macro influences are still seen as a significant risk. Guidance suggests the company’s opportunity for margin expansion remains tied to broader trends the company cannot fully control.
- Questions persist around transactional pricing, which could limit yield improvement and add uncertainty to near-term earnings visibility.
- Achieving projected margin and EPS growth through 2028 is viewed as contingent on a sustained freight upturn that supports both shipment and yield growth. These outcomes remain uncertain in the current environment.
What's in the News
- ArcBest has completed the repurchase of 6,908,708 shares under its longstanding buyback program, totaling $407.04 million, following the acquisition of 212,346 shares between July and October 2025 (Key Developments).
- The company is actively seeking strategic acquisitions. Leadership emphasizes a balanced approach to capital allocation and a focus on deals that align with long-term goals (Key Developments).
- ArcBest announced an increase in its equity buyback authorization, raising the remaining authorized amount to $125 million as of September 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has fallen modestly from $84.67 to $81.42, reflecting tempered expectations for future performance.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, from 8.58% to 8.61%, signaling a marginally higher perceived risk in projections.
- Revenue Growth expectations have decreased slightly, moving from 3.46% to 3.41% annually.
- Net Profit Margin assumptions have been reduced, now estimated at 3.31% compared to 3.41% previously.
- Future P/E multiple has edged down from 14.23x to 14.11x, indicating slightly less optimistic market expectations for ArcBest’s earnings potential.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.