Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 8.34%HP’s analyst price target has moved lower, dropping from $28 to $25. Analysts cite supply challenges, particularly rising memory costs and a weaker outlook for the company’s printing segment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent commentary from Wall Street reveals a divided view on HP's prospects. Analysts are weighing the company's exposure to supply chain headwinds against opportunities in its core businesses as they adjust their price targets and ratings.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to highlight HP's resilience in the personal computer segment. This is suggested to provide an offset to near-term weaknesses elsewhere in the business.
- Some see potential for positive impact from cost reduction initiatives, which could support margins and profitability if executed effectively.
- There is belief that demand trends related to artificial intelligence and associated hardware, while currently muted for HP, may offer longer-term upside if market dynamics evolve favorably.
- Bearish analysts note rising memory prices and ongoing supply constraints as significant headwinds. These are likely to pressure hardware margins and earnings through fiscal 2026.
- Weakness in HP's printing segment is a key concern, with limited visibility into when or if growth will resume.
- Lowered earnings outlooks and price target reductions reflect caution about HP's ability to navigate the memory pricing "supercycle" and execute on restructuring amid challenging demand conditions.
- Some warn that the risk of lower gross margins and negative earnings revisions could lead to further valuation pressure for HP shares.
What's in the News
- Apple is reportedly preparing to launch a new low-cost Mac laptop to compete with Chromebooks and entry-level Windows PCs. This move could potentially increase competition in the market that HP serves (Bloomberg).
- Multiple major U.S. tech companies, including HP, were named in an investigation as having played a role in building China's digital surveillance network. This has raised scrutiny around ethical supply chains (Associated Press).
- HP received top recognition for its All-In Plan printer subscription service, being named the leading choice for home and small office printing in 2025 (Consumer365).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $28.28 to $25.93, indicating a notable reassessment downward.
- Discount Rate has edged down slightly from 9.44% to 9.34%. This reflects a marginal change in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth projection has risen modestly, increasing from 1.41% to 1.50%.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has fallen from 5.12% to 4.92%, suggesting slightly lower expected profitability.
- Future P/E ratio forecast has decreased from 11.73x to 11.17x. This implies expectations for more muted growth or earnings expansion ahead.
Disclaimer
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