Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 13%Analysts have adjusted SoundThinking’s fair value price target downward from $17.83 to $15.50. They cite recent contract delays and a reduced outlook for 2026, though they note ongoing positive prospects in key markets.
Analyst Commentary
Recent adjustments to SoundThinking’s price targets reflect both optimism about the company’s positioning and caution regarding its recent performance and outlook.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts believe the company remains well positioned in its core markets, with a positive outlook for future contract wins.
- There is optimism surrounding the progress of the Chicago RFP process, which could lead to meaningful revenue growth if secured.
- Analysts state that the long-term demand for SoundThinking’s products and services supports a constructive view on valuation despite near-term challenges.
Bearish Takeaways
- Several analysts have lowered price targets in response to missed revenue expectations and top line disappointments in recent quarters.
- Uncertainty related to contract delays and a downwardly revised outlook for 2026 have raised concerns about the company’s near-term growth trajectory.
- Cautious analysts warn that persistent delays or further guidance reductions could continue to put pressure on the stock’s valuation and investor confidence.
What's in the News
- SoundThinking announced CrimeTracer Gen3, a major upgrade that expands it into a comprehensive, agency-wide crime-fighting solution with new AI-driven analysis and integration features. (Key Developments)
- The company completed the repurchase of 873,056 shares for $14.62 million as part of its ongoing share buyback program. (Key Developments)
- SoundThinking reported impairment charges of $237,000 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, up from $54,000 a year ago. (Key Developments)
- Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was lowered to approximately $104.0 million, due to contract delays affecting third quarter revenues. (Key Developments)
- For 2026, SoundThinking expects accelerated revenue growth and increased profitability based on new guidance provided. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Decreased from $17.83 to $15.50, reflecting a more cautious valuation outlook.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.55% to 8.61%, which indicates a modest rise in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: Revised upward from 8.87% to 9.11%, suggesting slightly improved sales expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Declined from 12.89% to 12.41%, which points to a marginally weaker profitability projection.
- Future P/E: Dropped from 17.35x to 14.39x, signaling a lower expected valuation multiple for the company.
Disclaimer
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