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Catalysts
- Are there any products or services that could move sales or earnings meaningfully? Introduction of AI across its offering, OpenAI as a new search engine and potentially gaming.
- Are there any industry tailwinds this stock is benefitting or hindered from? Cloud computing, AI/machine learning, gaming as a service
Valuation
- Where do you think the business will be in 5 years time? Intelligent Cloud business will grow around 20% annually and will outpace productivity and business processes segment. Gaming has also potential to grow faster. Products will be a smaller piece of its revenue streams.
- What do you think revenue and profit margins will be? I assume 10-15% annual earnings growth within the analysts range (12.5%)
- What do you think the valuation multiple will be in the future? PE= 25-30
- Based on my growth expectations, is the stock currently overvalued or undervalued? UNDERVALUED
Reasons to sell
- Lower cloud earnings
- Lags behind on AI
- Alternatives to Microsoft 365
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Disclaimer
The user Unike has a position in NasdaqGS:MSFT. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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